Small Craft Advisory 762, NWS Anchorage, AK

992 
FZAK51 PAFC 231102
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES BY LATE SUN NIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE AND IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MODELS WHICH HAD BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIAL
STORM CENTER ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF TUE ARE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION. THE GFS/EC ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AND THE MOST REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. SO AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE A MIX OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR CHANGES OVERALL.

.ANALYSIS
.500 MB...OLD STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NORTH GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN THEN LIFTS NORTH OF NEAR NORTON SOUND MON
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SW TO ALONG 170W MON AFTERNOON WITH
A CENTER FORMING NEAR 50N 160W MON EVENING. THIS CENTER CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF IS
WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A OLD LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
MOVES EASTWARD IN THE GULF AND WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER
ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON DEEPENS INTO THE UPPER
970S/LOWER 980S AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE SUN. THE
CENTER SLOWLY WEAKENS AS SECONDARY CENTERS FORM UNDER THE BROADENING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE OVERALL LOW COMPLEX LIFTING NORTH MON NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE SW ALASKA COAST/CENTRAL AK PEN THEN
INTO THE SW INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL SUN NIGHT/MON. A DEVELOPING
STORM LOW CENTER FORMS SOUTH OF THE EAST ALEUTIANS MON IN RESPONSE TO
A DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT. THIS CENTER RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
TUE AFTERNOON AND ITS PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER 960S.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH GULF AND
SHOULD WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
LIGHT MIX ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MON. ALSO MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER COOK INLET TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE COASTS AND A MIX ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GAP FLOWS. THE DEVELOPING STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE
GULF TUE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GALES/STORM FORCE WINDS
TO MUCH OF THE GULF AND COASTAL MARINE AREAS AS WELL AS LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS INLAND AREAS. PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
BE GENERALLY RAIN OR TRANSITION TO RAIN TUE...WITH THE COASTS
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF IT.

.SW ALASKA...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW MOVING
INTO COASTAL SW ALASKA BY SUN AFTERNOON. CHANCES AT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON AS A LOW COMPLEX
HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEVELOPING BERING LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUN. DRYING
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
BERING INTO TUE. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND SUN.

AS THE LOW TRAVELS EAST...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...AND THEN A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING THU WITH
WIND AND RAIN. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER SW AK BY MIDWEEK AS THE
MERGED LOW LEAVES THE AREA...BUT THIS MEANS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE
WILL HAVE ABUNDANT RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DRYING OUT THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 172 175 176 185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 11