Small Craft Advisory 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 142303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR KING SALMON WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD
AT 1000 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 998 MB LOW
600 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY AT 989 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ALASKA FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE BERING AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTH PACIFIC. A 130 KT JET THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING
OCCLUSION...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY LATE
MORNING. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE IS BUILDING DUE
TO AMPLE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM ON BOTH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS WAS THE FAVORED MODEL BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN ABOUT AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM AND HPC GUIDANCE
WAS RELIED UPON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION TODAY HAS ALREADY CAUSED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE GOOD FOR SUPPORTING
MOUNTAIN WAVES...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANCHORAGE. THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWS AN INVERSION JUST AT MOUNTAIN HEIGHT. WINDS ARE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH ABOUT 5000 FT...BUT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
ANCHORAGE CHUGACH ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION
AND TRAPPING OF MOUNTAIN WAVES.  AS A RESULT...SPURIOUS GUSTS HAVE
OCCURRED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ANCHORAGE IN ADDITION TO THE GAP
FLOW THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM THIS MORNING. SO FAR...WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED OVER 75 MPH AT MCHUGH CREEK THIS MORNING WITH UNOFFICIAL
REPORTS OF GUSTS TO 70 MPH ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPETED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND
WEAKENS ALONG THE EAST GULF COAST.

WHILE DOWNSLOPING IS GENERALLY LIMITING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL RIGHT NOW...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOUNTAIN PERPENDICULAR WINDS WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. WITH COLD AIR
POOLING IN INTERIOR VALLEYS...A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.  SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FALL AT TALKEETNA THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY TODAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS
BRINGING GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRING GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS SATURDAY.  A
WEAK WAVE COULD TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST WITH
NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CALMER ACROSS
THE BERING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE BRISTOL BAY LOW MOVES INLAND. WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SHEMYA BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND
ONLY GALES ARE EXPECTED. THIS LOW WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AND RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE BERING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
AND MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE JET STREAM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BERING INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING... 101
MARINE...GALES...120 125 129 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11
ELN