Small Craft Advisory 738, NWS Anchorage, AK

147 
FZAK51 PAFC 141849 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1040 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WILL MOVE TO 110 NM NW OF KODIAK CITY
FRI NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF FRI MORNING THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF SAT.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
1040 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND
15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 142303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR KING SALMON WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD
AT 1000 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 998 MB LOW
600 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY AT 989 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ALL OTHER MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE OLD WEATHER FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE STRONG LOW NORTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CROSS OVER
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TONIGHT WILL
MOVE TO NEAR ATTU FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
BERING WILL SPREAD INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO KENAI
PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN WITH CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL KEEP THE MOST OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY IN THE
RAIN SHADOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM, THE HIGHER ELEVATION OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE AND THROUGH THE PORTAGE VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE WESTERN
ARM AND KEEP THE EASTERN ARM IN THE STRONG WIND CATEGORY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING THEN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING...RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CHANGE TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEW
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 155 160 165 170 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 11