Small Craft Advisory 734, NWS Anchorage, AK

718 
FZAK52 PAFC 132301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO NEAR
DILLINGHAM AT 982 MB FRI AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF
FRI MORNING. A DEVELOPING 1002 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR ATTU AT 996 MB FRI EVENING AND TO 150 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK AT 1003 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W OF SHEMYA...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF SHEMYA...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

316 
FZAK52 PAFC 141156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WILL MOVE INLAND BY NOON FRI. A 997
MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO 250 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON AT 1002 MB THEN MOVE TO NEAR SHEMYA EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF ATKA SAT EVENING
AT 1004 MB.

$$

PKZ150-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-150300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-150300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY TONIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-150300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BERING
SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY TONIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-150300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-150300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS
WEAKENING THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PERSIST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THOUGH THERE ARE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVER EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND BOTH ARE MOVING TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BROUGHT
RAIN, SNOW AND SOME ISOLATE FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA. A NEW FRONTAL LOW
IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVED INTO THE PRIBILOFS AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THEY STILL
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE WAY THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL
LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE GFS IS MOVING THE LOW A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND THE NAM MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS A
BIT DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ALASKA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WEAKEN ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING
THEN MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COAST
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA, SUSITNA VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE AS THE
REMAINS OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY
EVENING THEN INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL PRODUCE A RAIN
SHADOW OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY WHILE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERS
THURSDAY BUT THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING SEA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL
BECOME SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
BECOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 160 170 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 11