Gale Warning 677, NWS Anchorage, AK

833 
FZAK61 PAFC 131146
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 59N 140W DISSIPATES THIS MORNING. A 987 MB LOW
NEAR 56N 169W THU AFTERNOON MOVES TO NEAR 59N 149W AT 988 MB FRI
NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-140300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-140300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

993 
FZAK61 PAFC 132310
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N 169W WILL MOVE TO 59N 158W AT 982 MB FRI
AFTERNOON AND TO 60N 148W AT 997 MB SAT AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI MORNING THEN 
WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF SAT.

$$

PKZ351-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-141500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

632 
FZAK61 PAFC 141206
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR 58N 162W WILL MOVE TO 59N 150W AT 991 MB FRI NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRI
MORNING THEN WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF SAT.   
$$

PKZ351-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-150300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

821 
FZAK61 PAFC 142303
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR 59N 157W WILL MOVE TO 59N 148W AT 1000 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 47N 162W
SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 53N 151W AT 989 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

537 
FZAK61 PAFC 151155
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 59N 151W WILL MOVE TO 59N 148W AT 999 SAT AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVE INLAND SAT NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW NEAR 51N 149W SUN
MORNING WILL MOVE TO 54N 143W AT 998 MB SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN INTENSIFYING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
AREAS THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOR THE MORNING TAF
PACKAGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
TONIGHT. THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE DELTA REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL AS
IT BEGINS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS AND WILL
BRING RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRINGING TO AN END THE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE BERING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BUSY WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER IN MOVING A DEVELOPING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND UPPER COOK INLET REGION EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. OUT IN
THE BERING...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF A
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING AND TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...PREFERRED THE 00Z EUROPEAN SINCE IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF MOST
ENSEMBLE MODELS AS WELL AS THE MESOSCALE NAM...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT
TOO FAST AND NORTHERLY AS THE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE WITH INTENSIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND INTENSIFYING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND THUS OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES THE COOK INLET REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY BEFORE DOWNSLOPE DRYING DEVELOPS OVER ANCHORAGE. THE
FIRST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT THE
VERY BEGINNING IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS LEFT AROUND...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. A FAIRLY POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL...EXCEPT FOR NORTH AND FACING SLOPES
OF THE CHUGACH RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREDOMINATE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE DELTA REGION AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. A STRONGER PUSH
OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES A STRONGER FRONT WHICH PUSHES INLAND OVER THE
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR
BETHEL WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF MIX ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY THURSDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA...

WARM PUSH OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ACCOMPANIES THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF LOW CENTERS AND FAST-MOVING
FRONTS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN APPEARS ON TAP AS THE PRINCIPAL STORM TRACK
WILL RESIDE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST
OFF OF RUSSIA AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BERING SEA...AND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...155 170 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 OCT 11