Small Craft Advisory 732, NWS Anchorage, AK

070 
FZAK51 PAFC 131155
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1014 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT DISSIPATES THIS MORNING. A
987 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THU AFTERNOON MOVES TO 60 NM
SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 988 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN INTENSIFYING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
AREAS THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOR THE MORNING TAF
PACKAGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
TONIGHT. THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE DELTA REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL AS
IT BEGINS TO OUTRUN ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS AND WILL
BRING RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRINGING TO AN END THE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE BERING WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BUSY WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS
SLOWER IN MOVING A DEVELOPING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND UPPER COOK INLET REGION EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. OUT IN
THE BERING...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND INTENSITY OF A
LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING AND TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...PREFERRED THE 00Z EUROPEAN SINCE IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF MOST
ENSEMBLE MODELS AS WELL AS THE MESOSCALE NAM...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT
TOO FAST AND NORTHERLY AS THE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE WITH INTENSIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND INTENSIFYING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND THUS OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES THE COOK INLET REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURSDAY BEFORE DOWNSLOPE DRYING DEVELOPS OVER ANCHORAGE. THE
FIRST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT THE
VERY BEGINNING IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS LEFT AROUND...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. A FAIRLY POTENT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL...EXCEPT FOR NORTH AND FACING SLOPES
OF THE CHUGACH RANGE WHERE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD PREDOMINATE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE DELTA REGION AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. A STRONGER PUSH
OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES A STRONGER FRONT WHICH PUSHES INLAND OVER THE
DELTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR
BETHEL WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BRIEF MIX ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY THURSDAY NIGHT.

BERING SEA...

WARM PUSH OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ACCOMPANIES THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF LOW CENTERS AND FAST-MOVING
FRONTS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN APPEARS ON TAP AS THE PRINCIPAL STORM TRACK
WILL RESIDE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST
OFF OF RUSSIA AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BERING SEA...AND WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...155 170 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 OCT 11