Small Craft Advisory 730, NWS Anchorage, AK

012 
FZAK51 PAFC 112239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YAKUTAT AT 1008 MB WED AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE 80 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING.  SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF BARREN ISLANDS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 10 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS DUE WEST TO
EAST AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. AT THREE DAYS OUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS VERY GOOD AND CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE MODELS SO THE MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES WILL LIKELY WORK OUT WITH THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA DID
NOT SEE NEARLY THE EXTEND OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE BEING MOVED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTER ALEUTIANS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT DAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BRING SOME RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT AND WILL BRING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
EXCEPT FOR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11