Gale Warning 674, NWS Anchorage, AK

198 
FZAK61 PAFC 111153
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120300-
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 53N 134W MOVES TO NEAR 57N 138W AT 995 MB TUE
NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO NEAR 59N 141W AT 1009 MB WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-120300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-120300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS DUE WEST TO
EAST AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. AT THREE DAYS OUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS VERY GOOD AND CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE MODELS SO THE MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES WILL LIKELY WORK OUT WITH THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA DID
NOT SEE NEARLY THE EXTEND OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE BEING MOVED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTER ALEUTIANS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT DAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BRING SOME RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT AND WILL BRING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
EXCEPT FOR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11