Gale Warning 675, NWS Anchorage, AK

193 
FZAK62 PAFC 112310
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY
WED MORNING. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 57N 166E MOVES TO NEAR 62N 178E AT 979
MB WED AFTERNOON THEN MOVES TO NEAR 66N 171W AT 985 MB THU AFTERNOON.
A 1006 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 44N 172E WED AFTERNOON AND MOVES NEAR 55N
167W AT 986 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N OF 56N...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. S OF 56N...SW WIND 30
KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N OF 56N...W WIND 35. SEAS 20 FT. S OF 56N...W WIND 20
KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

038 
FZAK62 PAFC 121138
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR 59N 169E MOVES TO NEAR 64N 171W AT 986 MB WED
NIGHT...THEN DRIFTS NORTH TO NEAR 66N 169W AT 991 MB THU NIGHT.
A 1007 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 47N 174E WED AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR
52N 175W AT 994 MB THU MORNING...THEN MOVES TO NEAR 57N 162W AT 984
MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
STATE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS DUE WEST TO
EAST AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. AT THREE DAYS OUT THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF A
LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS VERY GOOD AND CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE MODELS SO THE MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES WILL LIKELY WORK OUT WITH THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA DID
NOT SEE NEARLY THE EXTEND OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING AS COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA. THE EXCEPTION
TO THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM MOISTURE BEING MOVED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTER ALEUTIANS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT DAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BRING SOME RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THE FIRST LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AND INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND LOW WILL
HAVE SOME JET SUPPORT AND WILL BRING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
EXCEPT FOR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11