Small Craft Advisory 702, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312350 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 55 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 1002 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE 
TO 45 NM EAST OF SAND POINT AT 1003 MB THU NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT SHUMAGIN 
ISLANDS EASTWARD. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO S TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT E OF 160W. SEAS 7 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT SHIFTING TO NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT TOWARD MORNING. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 175W...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EUROPEAN
(EC) MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SCORED THE COUP IN SHOWING A PHASING
SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AS THE OTHER MODELS HAVE NOW COME IN LINE WITH
ITS SOLUTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RESIDES FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE...WE SHOULD START
TO SEE THE RAIN COME TO END GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. A RAPIDLY MOVING
TRANSITORY RIDGE PASSES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM (THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING SOLUTION) GETS GOING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY IN THE GULF WHILE YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS HELPED INITIATE A
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
LARGE AREA OF GALES FROM THE BARREN ISLAND WATERS THROUGH THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY
REGIONS THIS EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING TOWARDS
MORNING.

AFTER A TRANQUIL DAY OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND. STRONG GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A BARRIER JET.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE DELTA
REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
PUSHING A GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SWIFTLY MOVES ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN OF THIS WEEK
EVOLVING INTO A MUCH MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS EVOLUTION COMES
ABOUT...THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF THE EARLY OR
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BUILD TO THE
NORTH FROM THE WESTERN BERING ACROSS TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 130 170 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11