Gale Warning 578, NWS Anchorage, AK

733 
FZAK62 PAFC 012325
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 59N 168W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR COLD BAY LATE THU
EVENING. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING WILL MOVE TO 
THE EASTERN BERING SAT AFTERNOON. A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA FRI WILL
TRACK TO 62N 172W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

805 
FZAK62 PAFC 021123
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 59N 169E WILL MOVE TO 61N 174W AND DEEPEN TO 995
MB LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO 59N 165W AT 986 MB BY LATE SAT
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EUROPEAN
(EC) MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SCORED THE COUP IN SHOWING A PHASING
SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AS THE OTHER MODELS HAVE NOW COME IN LINE WITH
ITS SOLUTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RESIDES FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE...WE SHOULD START
TO SEE THE RAIN COME TO END GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. A RAPIDLY MOVING
TRANSITORY RIDGE PASSES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM (THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING SOLUTION) GETS GOING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY IN THE GULF WHILE YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS HELPED INITIATE A
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
LARGE AREA OF GALES FROM THE BARREN ISLAND WATERS THROUGH THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY
REGIONS THIS EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING TOWARDS
MORNING.

AFTER A TRANQUIL DAY OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND. STRONG GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A BARRIER JET.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE DELTA
REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
PUSHING A GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SWIFTLY MOVES ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN OF THIS WEEK
EVOLVING INTO A MUCH MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS EVOLUTION COMES
ABOUT...THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF THE EARLY OR
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BUILD TO THE
NORTH FROM THE WESTERN BERING ACROSS TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 130 170 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11