Gale Warning 706, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 31, 2011, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Sep 1, 2011, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312333
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1005 MB LOW 90 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1002
MB AS IT MOVES TO 55 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
INLAND. A 1005 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 991 MB AS IT MOVES TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THU
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W WIND 15
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BECOMING 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. STRONGER WINDS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...WEST WIND 20
KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 31, 2:00 PM AKDT, 2 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE EUROPEAN
(EC) MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SCORED THE COUP IN SHOWING A PHASING
SOLUTION WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AS THE OTHER MODELS HAVE NOW COME IN LINE WITH
ITS SOLUTION. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RESIDES FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
HAVING DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SPLITS AND THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE...WE SHOULD START
TO SEE THE RAIN COME TO END GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. A RAPIDLY MOVING
TRANSITORY RIDGE PASSES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM (THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING SOLUTION) GETS GOING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY IN THE GULF WHILE YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS HELPED INITIATE A
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A
LARGE AREA OF GALES FROM THE BARREN ISLAND WATERS THROUGH THE WESTERN
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...RAIN WILL
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY
REGIONS THIS EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING TOWARDS
MORNING.

AFTER A TRANQUIL DAY OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND. STRONG GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A BARRIER JET.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE DELTA
REGION BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
PUSHING A GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SWIFTLY MOVES ACROSS THE BERING FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN OF THIS WEEK
EVOLVING INTO A MUCH MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS EVOLUTION COMES
ABOUT...THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF THE EARLY OR
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BUILD TO THE
NORTH FROM THE WESTERN BERING ACROSS TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 130 170 172 175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.