Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

693 
FZAK51 PAFC 171301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1007 MB LOW 100 NM E OF KODIAK MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND MON EVENING AT 1010 MB AND CONTINUES ONSHORE 
NEAR CROSS SOUND TUE MORNING. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. W OF CAPE CLEARE...WIND BECOMING 
SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... 
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 25 KT NW OF THE BARREN 
ISLANDS. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. NW OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...WIND BECOMING 
NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIVERGENCE ON WEAK GULF
LOW THAT FORMS TODAY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN MOVES NE TOWARD
MIDDLETON ISLAND MONDAY.  NAM IS DEEPER WHICH IS PROBABLY THE BETTER
SOLUTION AS THE SURFACE FEATURE IS COUPLED WITH COOL AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AK PENINSULA AND DOWN FROM THE MTNS.
    IN THE WEST THE DEEP LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH (AROUND 935 MB MON MORNING) BUT NO
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPED OF SECONDARY LOW MON TO THE EAST OF THE PARENT
LOW.  GFS FORMS A 940 MB CUT OFF SYSTEM WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS A 964
MB TROUGH.  LIKE GFS SOLUTION BETTER ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO DEEP AS IT IS CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ILIAMNA WILL GENERATE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.  MAIN FEATURE IS STRONG FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF ATTU TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION... EXPECT STRONG E-SE WINDS AND RAIN IN WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS FRONT REACHES ISLANDS AND THEN MOVES INTO
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON MORNING. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL UNTIL FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY MID
DAY.  MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW AS FRONT MOVES ON SHORE BUT MIXED PHASE TUE
NIGHT INLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL...COLD AND CLEAR LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS
IN COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FRONT FROM ALEUTIAN SYSTEM SHOULD REACH COOK
INLET TUE NIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SNOW WED WITH SOME MOD-STR EAST
WINDS AS WELL.  FRONT SHOULD ALSO LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES WED
WITH NE WINDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW.  IN THE BERING REGION EXPECTING
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MODERATE SW TO SE WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL 131 FOR TOM PASS
MARINE...STRMS: 172 175 176        GALES: 170 171 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NO

JMP JAN 11