High Wind Watch 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

647 
WWAK72 PAFC 172003
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1103 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

AKZ191-180100-
/X.EXP.PAFC.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110117T2000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0009.110117T2003Z-110118T0100Z/
WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
1103 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80
MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-180915-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0006.110118T0900Z-110118T1700Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0010.110118T0900Z-110118T2000Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
1103 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM AKST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-180100-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110118T0100Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
1103 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 55 TO
70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...00Z ECMWF STILL NOT SHOWING SECONDARY LOW
FORMING ALONG FRONT STEMMING FROM DEEPENING LOW IN CENTRAL
PACIFIC S OF WRN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS JUST 24-36 HOURS OUT. SINCE
NAM IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE AS WELL...AND GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING IT LAST SEVERAL RUNS...GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
GFS IS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW FORMING
IN WRN GULF AK AT 72-84 HRS AS FRONT FROM CURRENT NPAC LOW MOVES
OVER. NAM TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME...SO USED MAINLY THE
GFS FOR MID-TERM AND EXTENDED AS WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED 490 DM UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 44N/170E HAS ABOUT 932 MB SURFACE REFLECTION.
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH THIS PUSHING N AND E HEADING
TOWARD WRN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY/TONIGHT. WEAKER SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW AROUND 948 MB WILL MOVE N OVER ATKA TUE MORNING. OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT FURTHER N AND E OVER ERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND AK PEN
TUE NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY ENTERING WRN GULF AK EARLY WED. SURFACE
LOW FORMS S OF PADQ EARLY WED...DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO NRN GULF
WED EVENING. LOW AND FRONTAL REMAINS LIFT N OVER ERN GULF COAST
AND S-CENTRAL WED/WED NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SW AK
CENTERED BETWEEN PAIL AND SELDOVIA. THIS WILL SLIDE E TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS SHORT-WAVE DROPPING S OVER INTERIOR IN STRONG CONSOLIDATED NWRLY
FLOW AROUND DEEP POLAR VORTEX N OF WRN CANADIAN ARCTIC GIVES IT
A NUDGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
-SN ENDING THIS MORNING SW AK AS WEAK UPPER LOW SLIDES E. -SN
DEVELOPING KENAI PEN. TO JUST S OF PAEN TODAY INTO EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN BROKEN CEILINGS FURTHER N OVER PANC BOWL.
-SN ALSO DEVELOPING TODAY GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AMOUNTS LIGHT THOUGH...1 TO 2 INCHES AT BEST. OUTFLOW WINDS
WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE INLAND CONTINUES WEAKENING. CONTINUED
COLD THROUGH TUE THEN WARMING WED/THU WITH FRONT MOVING INTO
GULF...THEN LIFTING N. SOME -SN LIKELY WED NIGHT PANC BOWL...HEAVIER
OVER KENAI/GULF COAST AND SUSITNA VALLEY. MUCH WARMER TEMPS WITH
THIS AND BEHIND.

BERING/ALEUTIANS
STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TODAY. STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT/TUE SPREADING E OVER ERN ALEUTIANS
BUT LIGHTER OVER AK PEN. PRECIP. TO BE MIXED OR ALL RAIN OVER ALL
ALEUTIANS. NEXT SYSTEM IN BROAD SWRLY FLOW WILL BE 975 MB LOW LIFTING
NE OVER ERN ALEUTIANS EARLY THU...LOOKS FOR NOW TO JUST BE GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH THIS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BROAD MILD SWRLY FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA THU WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FRONT WITH THU ERN ALEUTIANS LOW WILL LIFT
N OVER GULF COAST AND S-CENTRAL THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. PRECIP. PROBABLY
MIXED GULF COAST...COULD STILL BE -SN PANC BOWL AND SUSITNA VALLEY
BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT. MUCH WARMER ALL AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 191...HIGH WIND WATCH 185
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 172 175 176 411
         STORMS 170 412 413 414
         GALES...127 155 160 165 171 179 185 351 352

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR JAN 11