Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIVERGENCE ON WEAK GULF
LOW THAT FORMS TODAY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN MOVES NE TOWARD
MIDDLETON ISLAND MONDAY.  NAM IS DEEPER WHICH IS PROBABLY THE BETTER
SOLUTION AS THE SURFACE FEATURE IS COUPLED WITH COOL AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AK PENINSULA AND DOWN FROM THE MTNS.
    IN THE WEST THE DEEP LOW THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH (AROUND 935 MB MON MORNING) BUT NO
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPED OF SECONDARY LOW MON TO THE EAST OF THE PARENT
LOW.  GFS FORMS A 940 MB CUT OFF SYSTEM WHILE THE EC MAINTAINS A 964
MB TROUGH.  LIKE GFS SOLUTION BETTER ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO DEEP AS IT IS CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ILIAMNA WILL GENERATE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.  MAIN FEATURE IS STRONG FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF ATTU TODAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION... EXPECT STRONG E-SE WINDS AND RAIN IN WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS FRONT REACHES ISLANDS AND THEN MOVES INTO
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON MORNING. WIND SPEEDS IN THE 50 TO 70 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COOL UNTIL FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY MID
DAY.  MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW AS FRONT MOVES ON SHORE BUT MIXED PHASE TUE
NIGHT INLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL...COLD AND CLEAR LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS
IN COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FRONT FROM ALEUTIAN SYSTEM SHOULD REACH COOK
INLET TUE NIGHT PRODUCING A CHANCE OF SNOW WED WITH SOME MOD-STR EAST
WINDS AS WELL.  FRONT SHOULD ALSO LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES WED
WITH NE WINDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW.  IN THE BERING REGION EXPECTING
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MODERATE SW TO SE WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL 131 FOR TOM PASS
MARINE...STRMS: 172 175 176        GALES: 170 171 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NO

JMP JAN 11