Hurricane Force Wind Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

935 
FZAK52 PAFC 231218
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 325 NM S OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN TO 970 MB
THU MORNING AS IT MOVES TO 450 NM N OF AMCHITKA. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN
TO 978 MB THU AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR. THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THU. 

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 65 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 55 KT EAST OF SHEMYA. SEAS 
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF KISKA.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 26 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE HAVING NO TROUBLE IN THE EAST WITH
NOTHING BUT A LARGE RIDGE TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FEATURE OF NOTE TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE JUST ABOUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND MUCH FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAM WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE AND RIDE OVER THE TOP BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BERING SEA WHICH IS WHERE THE STORM TRACK HAS
BEEN AND WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW AS A STRONG LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE RIGHT BEHIND THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS WAS
CANCELED THIS MORNING AFTER CONDITIONS DID NOT DEVELOP. THE WIND
INCREASED AS FORECAST BUT THE SNOW WAS EVIDENTLY NOT TRANSPORTABLE
AND THEREFORE VISIBILITIES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY ANY
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS IN THE VALDEZ AND CORDOVA AREAS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AS THE STRONG LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MOSTLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
MOST OF THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST KICKING WINDS UP AGAIN IN THAT
AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 129 155 165 170 172 179 180 185.
         STORM  175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11