Gale Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

398 
FZAK62 PAFC 240012
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 176E WILL MOVE TO 66N 174W AT 985 MB FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND
FRI.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 176E...N TO W WIND 55 TO 65 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. E
OF 176E...S WIND 50 TO 60 KT BECOMING W 45 TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 TO 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176E.
.THU...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 28 TO 32 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 TO 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
TO 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED FEB 23 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE HAVING NO TROUBLE IN THE EAST WITH
NOTHING BUT A LARGE RIDGE TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FEATURE OF NOTE TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE JUST ABOUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND MUCH FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAM WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE AND RIDE OVER THE TOP BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BERING SEA WHICH IS WHERE THE STORM TRACK HAS
BEEN AND WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW AS A STRONG LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE RIGHT BEHIND THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS WAS
CANCELED THIS MORNING AFTER CONDITIONS DID NOT DEVELOP. THE WIND
INCREASED AS FORECAST BUT THE SNOW WAS EVIDENTLY NOT TRANSPORTABLE
AND THEREFORE VISIBILITIES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY ANY
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS IN THE VALDEZ AND CORDOVA AREAS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AS THE STRONG LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MOSTLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
MOST OF THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST KICKING WINDS UP AGAIN IN THAT
AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 129 155 165 170 172 179 180 185.
         STORM  175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11