Gale Warning 226, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE HAVING NO TROUBLE IN THE EAST WITH
NOTHING BUT A LARGE RIDGE TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
FEATURE OF NOTE TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE JUST ABOUT IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE LARGE LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND MUCH FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW. THE ECMWF/NAM
SOLUTION WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAM WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH THIS RIDGE AND RIDE OVER THE TOP BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE BERING SEA WHICH IS WHERE THE STORM TRACK HAS
BEEN AND WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW AS A STRONG LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE RIGHT BEHIND THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS WAS
CANCELED THIS MORNING AFTER CONDITIONS DID NOT DEVELOP. THE WIND
INCREASED AS FORECAST BUT THE SNOW WAS EVIDENTLY NOT TRANSPORTABLE
AND THEREFORE VISIBILITIES WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED BY ANY
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS IN THE VALDEZ AND CORDOVA AREAS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AS THE STRONG LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MOSTLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
MOST OF THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST KICKING WINDS UP AGAIN IN THAT
AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 129 155 165 170 172 179 180 185.
         STORM  175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11