High Wind Watch 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

887 
WWAK72 PAFC 021834
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1034 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGIONS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AKZ181-030745-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0029.111103T0600Z-111103T1800Z/
/X.EXB.PAFC.HW.W.0036.111103T0600Z-111103T1600Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
1034 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
AKDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM AKDT
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH AREAS OF CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING AND THEN PEAK LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
  MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES. WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES WILL
  MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-030745-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0036.111103T0000Z-111103T0800Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
1034 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT. 

* WIND...SOUTH WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES
  WILL MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
441 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF THAT HAS CAUSED QUITE THE
HEADACHE WITH OUR FORECASTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WILL ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS IT WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN THE DEMISE OF STRONG WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS IS A STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE REFLECTION...A 980 MB LOW ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH
OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING...MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF AMCHITKA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BETWEEN ANIAK
AND CAPE NEWENHAM EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
FORMING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE MINOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HANDLING OF
PRINCIPAL WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT NOTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT THAT PRECLUDES USING ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. THE NAM
WAS PREFERRED FOR ITS DETAIL AND ITS SIMILARITIES WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS. IN THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME...LEANED HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE AS
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN (EC)
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS OVER THE BERING SEA BEYOND THREE DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

OUTFLOW WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ARE CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE
LULL...BUT WILL AGAIN PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH OUTFLOW GAPS
(SUCH AS PORTAGE PASS AND THOMPSON PASS) INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAST IN A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS WITH
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND
TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE EXISTING COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
EXPECT ABOUT 6 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FALLING
INLAND TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BEFORE THERE IS A CHANGEOVER...IF
ONE OCCURS AT ALL. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN EXPOSED AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

IT IS HARD NOT TO NOTICE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE BERING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE POWERFUL SYSTEM
WHICH AFFECTED THE REGION BACK IN EARLY APRIL OF THIS YEAR. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING A NEARLY IDENTICAL TRACK TO THE APRIL
STORM...THOUGH THIS TIME THE LOW'S CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER AND WILL ALSO NOT BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING WITH THIS STORM.
HOWEVER...A POWERFUL WEATHER FRONT WITH STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
AND HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH 925 MB WINDS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF HURRICANE FORCE AND STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES
SUPPORTING GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...EXPECT WINDS TO EASILY REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ALSO
EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER MARINE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE AWAY TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THUS WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER COLD ADVECTION REGIME OVER
NORTHERN COOK INLET REGION. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STRETCHING THIS
SYSTEM EAST-WEST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS A
DECENT PERIOD OF SNOW BECOMES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE
ANCHORAGE AREA DURING SOME PART OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR NOW BEFORE
MAKING THE JUMP TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW IN THE EXTENDEDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...181
         HIGH WIND WARNING...131 185
         BLIZZARD WARNING...131
MARINE...GALES...121 129 130 132 150 160
         STORMS...155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 NOV 11