Gale Warning 826, NWS Anchorage, AK

427 
FZAK51 PAFC 021145
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN TO 994 MB AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS
THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE 
EVENING.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE  AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT 11 AM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE SUCKLING. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO THE BORDER
WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. AS THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD THE MOISTURE IS ROTATING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP-TYPE IS SNOW. OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RAPIDLY
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE INTERIOR IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SURFACE WINDS
IN MOST AREAS. THE TALKEETNA WIND PROFILER AND KENAI RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOW 35 TO 50 KT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW AND WINDS ARE CAUSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND COPPER BASIN WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW EXTENDS WESTWARD TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN BERING WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THIS AREA IS RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 500 NM
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH MOISTURE SPREADING WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...DUE TO MODEL INGEST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING DID
NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA. THE ECMWF APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BEST WITH POSITION OF DEEP LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IT AT LEAST HINTS AT A SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
THE NAM SOLUTION DOES CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ECMWF BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THESE TWO LOWS COMBINE INTO A SINGLE CONCENTRIC LOW.
SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. WILL UPDATE THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BASED ON THE AVAILABLE 12Z NAM
DATA WHICH GOES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL CHANGES WILL BE
MADE BEYOND THIS POINT. OUT WEST THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z 190 KM GFS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF EACH MODEL. WITHOUT
A FULL MODEL SUITE TO WORK WITH PLAN ON VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE GULF LOW WILL START TO TRACK AWAY FROM
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH MEANS WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE VALDEZ AREA TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT THE
CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS HIGHLIGHTS THE MOST
DANGEROUS THREAT IN THE AREA. ONCE THIS EXPIRES LATE THIS EVENING
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST
ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A VERY LARGE
BERING LOW. AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY PRECIP
AND WIND WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL. AS IS TYPICAL ALSO
EXPECT A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO SAY WHETHER ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERING SYSTEM IT IS
A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WINDS WILL DIE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE REGION. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS...A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE
COLD AND QUIET WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG THOUGH AS A VERY LARGE BERING
LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WHICH MEANS PRECIP-TYPE
WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW BEFORE THE WARM AIR ARRIVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. DON'T PLAN TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS AT THE MOMENT...BUT WILL CONSIDER ISSUING SOMETHING WITH
THE NEW FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
STORM WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY BECOME THE
DOMINANT LOW. WIDESPREAD GALE TO A STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS THIS LOW DEEPENS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT IS LOOKING
LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO MAINLAND ALASKA LATE THURSDAY ANOTHER WILL ENTER FROM
THE WEST...ALBEIT A MUCH WEAKER STORM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...ACTIVE
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...127 128 130 132 150 170 172 175 176 179
                         180 185.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 125 126 129 138 140 141 155 160
                        165 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11