Gale Warning 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

994 
FZAK51 PAFC 230314 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
615 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 965 MB LOW 125 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 140 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE NIGHT AND THEN TO 90 NM WEST OF SITKA
AT 975 MB WED NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 40 NM NORTHWEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND WED NIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU.
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
615 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AND NEAR CAPES
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS 60 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

356 
FZAK51 PAFC 231247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 981 MB
80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA LATE WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. A
984 MB LOW WILL FORM 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD LATE WED NIGHT AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE TO 989 MB LATE THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR WHITTIER...FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR WHITTIER...FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...18 FT E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW IS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN OUT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS WELL AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
BOTH COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS INLAND AREAS AROUND COOK INLET. THIS
FALLING SNOW IS EXTRAORDINARILY LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND IS BEING
EASILY BLOWN AROUND BY GUSTY WINDS AROUND PARTS OF ANCHORAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS
AND KODIAK ISLAND AS COLD AND DENSE AIR FROM SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN MOUNTAIN RANGES.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA...CREATING UNSEASONABLY CALM WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING QUITE WELL WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT
ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS OF THE SMALL
SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND IN THE GULF THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THOUGHT NOT PERFECT...THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OUTSIDE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THUS THE NAM WAS
USED TO MAKE MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PEAK BY
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS AND KODIAK ISLAND ZONE.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL WEAKEN
AND MAIN ENERGY IN THE GULF SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY TODAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA TO ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE AND FALLING SNOW
DIMINISHES. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE INVERSION
PRESENT ON THE MORNING SOUNDING.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WIND
DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS SLOWLY
WEAKENS...ALLOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO CROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SUGGESTING A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD
BRING WARMER BUT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO MOST OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 171
         BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 145 152 155 161
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150
         GALE 121 126 127 128 129 138 140 141 155 160 165 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 126 127 128 129 130 132 138 140
                              141 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 11