Gale Warning 812, NWS Anchorage, AK

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 231218
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 53N 165E WILL WEAKEN TO 997 MB NEAR 52N 175W LATE
WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE WESTERN BERING THU AND THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...N OF 56N...E WIND 25 KT. S OF 56N...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COLD UPPER LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW IS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN OUT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS WELL AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS SPREADING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
BOTH COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS INLAND AREAS AROUND COOK INLET. THIS
FALLING SNOW IS EXTRAORDINARILY LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND IS BEING
EASILY BLOWN AROUND BY GUSTY WINDS AROUND PARTS OF ANCHORAGE. FURTHER
SOUTH...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS
AND KODIAK ISLAND AS COLD AND DENSE AIR FROM SOUTHWEST ACCELERATES
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN MOUNTAIN RANGES.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA...CREATING UNSEASONABLY CALM WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING QUITE WELL WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT
ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS OF THE SMALL
SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND IN THE GULF THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THOUGHT NOT PERFECT...THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED BEST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OUTSIDE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THUS THE NAM WAS
USED TO MAKE MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR WILL PEAK BY
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS AND KODIAK ISLAND ZONE.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL WEAKEN
AND MAIN ENERGY IN THE GULF SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY TODAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA TO ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE AND FALLING SNOW
DIMINISHES. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE INVERSION
PRESENT ON THE MORNING SOUNDING.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WIND
DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS SLOWLY
WEAKENS...ALLOWING A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO CROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL PATTERN OF COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SUGGESTING A PATTERN SHIFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD
BRING WARMER BUT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO MOST OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 171
         BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 145 152 155 161
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150
         GALE 121 126 127 128 129 138 140 141 155 160 165 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 126 127 128 129 130 132 138 140
                              141 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 11