Gale Warning 889, NWS Anchorage, AK

214 
FZAK51 PAFC 240001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE EAST AND 
DISSIPATE THU. A 984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 75 NM NORTHWEST OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE WED NIGHT AND DRIFT TO 75 NM SOUTH OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS 
40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST
OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 OUT OF NORTHERN 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST 
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF 
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST 
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER
LOW...MAKING FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AIR REMAINS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA...THOUGH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL IS FEELING THE RELATIVE WARMING
EFFECT OF CLOUDCOVER THIS MORNING. PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE
MOVING AROUND THE COOK INLET REGION FROM KACHEMAK BAY UP TO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE MULTI-DAY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO COME TO AN END. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW EMERGES FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND MAKES
PROGRESS TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL
WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE LOWS IN
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CHAOTICALLY AROUND UNDER THE UPPER
LOW...CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO COASTAL
AREAS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE LOWS IS A SOURCE OF SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...A RESULT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.
THE EC WAS USED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN THE GULF REGION IT WILL BE HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS OF SNOW BANDS AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS MORE THAN
12-18 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE PINPOINTING
THE DURATION AND LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW IN
THE COOK INLET REGION. FORTUNATELY NO LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MORE THAN
AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION AT MOST. LOCALIZED WEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AROUND WHITTIER...PICKING UP THE SNOWFALL FROM
YESTERDAY AND LEADING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH.

SOUTHWEST...A REINFORCING SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS MOVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST TODAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS SO NOT EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO BE A PROBLEM.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...BROAD AREA OF WEAK BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE MOVING SOUTH
TODAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA. NORTH WINDS INTENSIFY AS THIS FEATURE
PASSES...USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. OVERALL...COLD
BUT TAMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD FOR MOST OF THE STATE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING AROUND SUNDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS
WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131
MARINE...GALE 175 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 140 150 160 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON NOV 11