Gale Warning 805, NWS Anchorage, AK

270 
FZAK62 PAFC 171525 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
625 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

AMENDED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 57N 175E WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A WEATHER
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN FRI. A 990
MB LOW NEAR 47N 174E THU NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB NEAR 54N
179W FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 60 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

044 
FZAK62 PAFC 180041
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 46N 173E THU NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO 51N 176E AT 972 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND TO 56N 173W AT 972
MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 56N...S
WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. S OF 56N...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING W
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN TODAY...AN ELONGATED BROAD UPPER LOW
STRETCHES FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA WITH THE MAIN CORE OF THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW IS PART OF A VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN TO THE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ANOTHER STACKED
SYSTEM IS ANCHORED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THAT UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEK. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND UP INTO SIBERIA ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT PUSH OF
RELATIVELY WARM AIR INTO THE BERING SEA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE
LOW COMBO IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR FEATURES
TODAY. CONSISTENCY FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS ROUGHLY THE SAME WITH THE
MAJOR FEATURES...THE GULF LOW WILL DROP DOWN NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
BERING SEA. TODAY'S PACKAGE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW OF THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/WEAK TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL PUSH INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN BY EARLY FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND THE MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. WHILE THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...THE ORIGINAL
KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW WILL DISSOLVE INTO ANOTHER IN EAST ASIA AND A NEW
UPPER LOW WILL FORM FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. BOTH GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT A DEEP SURFACE LOW IN
THE BERING PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN
THE VICINITY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW IN THE
GULF WILL KEEP THE GUSTY/WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AND
WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SLACKEN. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA...THOMPSON PASS...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY AREAS. THE
WINDY CONDITIONS  WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTION
OF VISIBILITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY AND EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND TURN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL JUST BRING SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS AND THE AKPEN ON LATE THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH WILL BRING SNOW AGAIN ON SATURDAY...THIS
ONE SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE ACTIVE PATTERN OUT WEST CONTINUES.
RAIN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FIRST BEGINNING AS SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK NORTH TOWARD THE WESTERN CHAIN BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MORE RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONG TERM GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL.
LOOKS LIKE THE STACKED SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL STAY ACTIVE AS ANOTHER KAMCHATKA LOW TAKES SHAPE WITH ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE CHAIN. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
LOOKS TO STAY DRY EXCEPT FOR COASTAL AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131 HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135 WIND CHILL
ADVISORY 145
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150 179 351 352 411 412 414 GALE 120 121 129
138 140 141 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180 413 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
121 129 130 138 140 141 HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11