Gale Warning 780, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312346
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLD BAY LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE AND MOVES EAST ON WED. A 981 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT...GUSTING TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT 
OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN 
ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT...GUSTING TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...GUSTING TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE WESTERN CAPES.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE 
COAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 45 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT
THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 14 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA TODAY WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA.
A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET HAS CAUSED SNOWFALL FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF A LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
AND HAS INITIALIZED WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND NOW TAKES THE TRACK VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS
TRACK...THOUGH QUITE A BUT STRONGER. THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE BEEN USING THE GFS
AS THE BASE MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT WAVE OVER COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SNOW TO SHUT OFF IN THAT AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THIS FEATURE STALLS OUT AND WEAKENS OVER THAT
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND OR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
AROUND COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS MOVING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
A QUESTION IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN IS
JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN AND INLAND AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS WELL AS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY WILL SEE ONLY SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING CONVERGE ON A
COMMON SOLUTION WHICH WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE. THE PATTERN THAT
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS ONE WITH A
STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG LOW WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA AT THIS TIME. AS THIS IS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11