Gale Warning 699, NWS Anchorage, AK

584 
FZAK61 PAFC 311142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 1002 MB LOW FORMS NEAR
59N 150W LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVES TO 60N 143W AT 998 THIS EVENING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A 1000 MB LOW
NEAR 51N 150W THIS EVENING MOVES TO 59N 144W TUE AFTERNOON AT 976 MB
AND WEAKENS TO 993 MB WED MORNING NEAR 58N 144W.

$$

PKZ351-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 312308
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011500-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 54N 152W WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB TUE
MORNING NEAR 59N 145W. IT WEAKENS TO 985 MB AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST 
TO NEAR 58N 146W TUE EVENING...THEN MOVES TO NEAR 54N 136W WED
AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. 

$$

PKZ351-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 146W...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF 146W...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA TODAY WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA.
A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET HAS CAUSED SNOWFALL FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF A LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
AND HAS INITIALIZED WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND NOW TAKES THE TRACK VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS
TRACK...THOUGH QUITE A BUT STRONGER. THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE BEEN USING THE GFS
AS THE BASE MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT WAVE OVER COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SNOW TO SHUT OFF IN THAT AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THIS FEATURE STALLS OUT AND WEAKENS OVER THAT
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND OR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
AROUND COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS MOVING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
A QUESTION IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN IS
JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN AND INLAND AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS WELL AS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY WILL SEE ONLY SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING CONVERGE ON A
COMMON SOLUTION WHICH WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE. THE PATTERN THAT
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS ONE WITH A
STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG LOW WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA AT THIS TIME. AS THIS IS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11