Gale Warning 778, NWS Anchorage, AK

589 
FZAK51 PAFC 311148
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1002 MB LOW FORMS 100 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS
MORNING AND MOVES NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AT 998 MB THIS EVENING AND THEN
MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A 1000 MB LOW 300 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THIS EVENING MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF ICY BAY
TUE AFTERNOON AT 976 MB AND THEN WEAKENS TO 993 MB WED MORNING 125 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.

$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA TODAY WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA.
A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET HAS CAUSED SNOWFALL FROM THE
KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS RAIN
AND SNOW THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF A LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
AND HAS INITIALIZED WELL. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS MADE A LARGE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND NOW TAKES THE TRACK VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS
TRACK...THOUGH QUITE A BUT STRONGER. THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER
THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTERNOON FORECASTS HAVE BEEN USING THE GFS
AS THE BASE MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORT WAVE OVER COOK INLET WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SNOW TO SHUT OFF IN THAT AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT IN EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THIS FEATURE STALLS OUT AND WEAKENS OVER THAT
AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND OR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
AROUND COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IS MOVING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
A QUESTION IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN IS
JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT AREAS OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN AND INLAND AREAS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS WELL AS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY WILL SEE ONLY SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING CONVERGE ON A
COMMON SOLUTION WHICH WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE. THE PATTERN THAT
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS ONE WITH A
STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG LOW WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA AT THIS TIME. AS THIS IS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A
STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 11