Gale Warning 772, NWS Anchorage, AK

290 
FZAK52 PAFC 291138
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300300-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SAT. A 998 MB
LOW 75 NM WEST OF ATTU LATE SAT MORNING MERGES WITH A BERING LOW TO
FORM A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED 990 MB LOW SAT EVENING ALONG 180.
THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 978 MB SUN EVENING 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL
AND THEN MOVES 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST GEORGE LATE MON MORNING AT 983
MB.

$$

PKZ150-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-300300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-300300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
QUIETER WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AS WE AWAIT THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. A MIXED
BAG OF CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...CLEARING
OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN ALLOWED FOR PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDY AREAS IN THE
REMAINING SOUTHWEST INTERIOR HAS KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE
LARGER PICTURE FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO LOW CENTERS...ONE
STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH ANOTHER SLOWLY TRANSLATING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AKPEN. THE LATTER FEATURES AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
FACILITATES SOME BLUE SKIES FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE
SUSITNA VALLY SAVE FOR SOME PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. A MORE POTENT
UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBO IS EXITING THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
KEEPING WITH THE ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS WELL HANDLED FOR THE SHORT TERM
SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES ARISE FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY FROM
MODEL TO MODEL IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...POSITION...AND ORIENTATION
WHICH ALL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND COAST. GLOBAL GUIDANCE KEEPS A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF KODIAK BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE NAM PROGS A MORE ELONGATED SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SOLUTION. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO REPRESENT A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. THE GLOBALS TEND TO SHOW A MUCH
MORE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH KEEPING KEEPING THE NAM AN OUTLIER.
ECMWF FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PARTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ALBEIT THIN HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE COOK INLET
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS AS THE NEXT LOW TAKES SHAPE IN
THE GULF. THE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE INCOMING TROUGH AND ORIENTATION TO
THE COAST MAKE WINDS NOT AS BIG OF A FACTOR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
SUNDAY ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW. WHILE THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SAID
TROUGH ALL SOLUTIONS BRING IN COLD AIR WITH THIS FEATURE SO WE ARE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...YET ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND SETUP FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES INTO THE GULF.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A RAIN ON SATURDAY FOR THE AKPEN AND
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A MIX THEN
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SAME BAND WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION KEEPS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME A LARGE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
FROM WEST TO EAST INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BROAD STACKED
SYSTEM WILL FLIRT WITH GALE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGIN TO GET MUDDLED AS
DISCREPANCIES ARISE WITH THE SYSTEM OFF KAMCHATKA AND SUBSEQUENT
PHASING WITH A WAVE IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THE
CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DISTURBED BY A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING POLAR VORTEX WHICH WILL DISPLACE THE STUBBORN BERING
STRAIT/SEA TROUGHINESS. AGAIN A SIMILAR STORM TRACK MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AFTER WHICH THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. TRAJECTORIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK FAVOR A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH
INTERMITTENT SNOW CHANCES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 411 413
414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
MTL OCT 11