Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS SPREADING RW/TRW ACROSS
TAF SITES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE...BUT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL ALL BE IN THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE LIFT FROM A VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LARGE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. GIVEN THE RATE OF
EASTWARD PROGRESS IT APPEARS THE LINE WILL BE EAST OF TULSA AND
MCALESTER BY 12Z. I HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF HWY 69. ONCE THIS LINE EXITS THE
AREA...OUR BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS FORECAST WILL BE DONE.

SURFACE WINDS/WIND GUSTS AND TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TWO DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE
POLAR/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT IS MARCHING EAST ACROSS WEST TX ATTM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIPPLE ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVELY DRAG THE PACIFIC FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO NE OK AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT
WHEREVER THE POLAR/ARCTIC FRONT ENDS UP. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS...AIDED IN PART BY MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 MPH
AND MAY APPROACH 40 MPH OVER NORTHEAST OK...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO
BE TOO BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. NAM
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT DO NOT SHOW
OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS. WINDS DECREASE ALOFT
BY THE TIME MIXING HEIGHTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE
OF THEM.

ANOTHER VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MODEL RH PLOTS SHOW
DECENT 500-700MB MOISTURE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY QPF FORECAST. WILL KEEP
POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
IT.

IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE NEW YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
AND TAKES ON A MORE ZONAL CHARACTER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OFF
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE QUITE WELL WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DUE IN PART TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP COULD REACH UP INTO SOUTHEAST OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND THUS I HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHC POP FOR
RAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH A PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  18  37  16 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   64  29  42  21 /  60  10  10  10
MLC   61  23  42  17 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   57  15  36  12 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   61  22  37  13 /  60  10  10  10
BYV   63  23  37  16 /  60  10  10  10
MKO   62  21  37  16 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   59  18  34  14 /  60  10  10   0
F10   60  19  38  15 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   63  29  45  21 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
820 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA....EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FIRST FRONT...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT
WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE RESULTING IN A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-
MORNING.

STRONG AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FIRST COLD FRONT. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THAT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES. THE WIND WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     TORNADO          CINCINNATI              36.04N 94.51W
12/31/2010                   WASHINGTON         AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PRELIMNARY REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE IN CINCINNATI. ONE
            MOBILE HOME AND TWO BARNS DESTROYED. ADDITIONAL
            INFORMATION TO FOLLOW.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     TORNADO          CINCINNATI              36.04N 94.51W
12/31/2010                   WASHINGTON         AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ADDITIONAL PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM CINCINNATI. EXTENSIVE
            DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA. BRICK HOME DESTROYED.
            VEHICLES DAMAGED. VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT FACILITY DAMAGED.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
752 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TORNADO          WESTVILLE               35.99N 94.57W
12/31/2010                   ADAIR              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PRELIMINARY REPORT OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ON NORTH SIDE AND
            TO THE NORTHEAST OF WESTVILLE.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     HAIL             1 NE PANAMA             35.18N 94.66W
12/31/2010  E1.25 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ029-OKZ076-311500-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
820 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN LE FLORE

AT 821 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARTFORD...GREENWOOD...HUNTINGTON...
MIDLAND...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...MANSFIELD AND FORT CHAFFEE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3514 9403 3514 9413 3510 9415 3507 9423
      3497 9422 3495 9431 3495 9437 3492 9443
      3488 9445 3503 9457 3530 9411 3526 9407
      3522 9408 3521 9405 3522 9403 3520 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 226DEG 42KT 3501 9445

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