Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WITHIN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK/WEST CENTRAL AR. HIGHEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS ARE
SURFACE BASED. WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND WHILE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW...IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN OVERCOME THE
CAP SUFFICIENTLY THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL GET A PUSH SOUTHEAST
AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT JUST
NW OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

INCREASED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  60  17  36 /  40  20  10  10
FSM   57  66  28  42 /  90  40  10  10
MLC   54  63  21  41 /  60  20  10  10
BVO   49  58  15  34 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   56  64  21  37 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   55  65  23  36 /  80  50  10  10
MKO   52  62  19  38 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   53  63  17  34 /  60  30  10  10
F10   54  60  18  38 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   58  66  29  44 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
942 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WHERE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY. WHILE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE CHANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW...A SUPERCELL THAT REMAINS SURFACE BASED AND CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER...AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NEW YEAR.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS
WHEN RESPONDING TO ANY WILDFIRES AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
DUE TO TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

ARZ010-019-OKZ072-076-310415-
CRAWFORD AR-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
948 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 948 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF
ROLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROLAND...SHORT...MOFFETT...
CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM...FIGURE FIVE AND LEE CREEK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3545 9438 3545 9441 3540 9442 3540 9443
      3539 9443 3529 9451 3531 9461 3565 9451
      3565 9447 3571 9449 3580 9446 3571 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 203DEG 44KT 3543 9449

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