Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS SPREADING RW/TRW ACROSS
TAF SITES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINE...BUT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL ALL BE IN THE
FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE LIFT FROM A VORT LOBE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LARGE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. GIVEN THE RATE OF
EASTWARD PROGRESS IT APPEARS THE LINE WILL BE EAST OF TULSA AND
MCALESTER BY 12Z. I HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF HWY 69. ONCE THIS LINE EXITS THE
AREA...OUR BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS FORECAST WILL BE DONE.

SURFACE WINDS/WIND GUSTS AND TEMPS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TWO DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE
POLAR/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT IS MARCHING EAST ACROSS WEST TX ATTM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIPPLE ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVELY DRAG THE PACIFIC FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO NE OK AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT
WHEREVER THE POLAR/ARCTIC FRONT ENDS UP. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS...AIDED IN PART BY MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 MPH
AND MAY APPROACH 40 MPH OVER NORTHEAST OK...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TO
BE TOO BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. NAM
MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF WIND AND MIXING HEIGHT DO NOT SHOW
OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS. WINDS DECREASE ALOFT
BY THE TIME MIXING HEIGHTS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE
OF THEM.

ANOTHER VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MODEL RH PLOTS SHOW
DECENT 500-700MB MOISTURE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY QPF FORECAST. WILL KEEP
POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION AND WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
IT.

IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE NEW YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES
AND TAKES ON A MORE ZONAL CHARACTER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OFF
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE QUITE WELL WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AND BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DUE IN PART TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIP COULD REACH UP INTO SOUTHEAST OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AND THUS I HAVE INTRODUCED A SLGT CHC POP FOR
RAIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH A PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  18  37  16 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   64  29  42  21 /  60  10  10  10
MLC   61  23  42  17 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   57  15  36  12 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   61  22  37  13 /  60  10  10  10
BYV   63  23  37  16 /  60  10  10  10
MKO   62  21  37  16 /  60  10  10  10
MIO   59  18  34  14 /  60  10  10   0
F10   60  19  38  15 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   63  29  45  21 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...02

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

OKZ057-061>063-311200-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
530 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG
     AND MAYES

AT 530 AM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF PRYOR TO 6 MILES WEST OF CHOUTEAU...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KETCHUM...PRYOR...CHOUTEAU...SALINA AND
PENSACOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3665 9494 3622 9519 3614 9552 3640 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1130Z 226DEG 44KT 3637 9530 3621 9543

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

OKZ073>076-311315-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
626 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND
     NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

AT 627 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
LEWISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...
KINTA...KEOTA AND BOKOSHE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3540 9493 3517 9470 3493 9527 3509 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 232DEG 42KT 3506 9524

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
752 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TORNADO          WESTVILLE               35.99N 94.57W
12/31/2010                   ADAIR              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PRELIMINARY REPORT OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ON NORTH SIDE AND
            TO THE NORTHEAST OF WESTVILLE.

&&

JDS