River Flood Warning 65, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOCUSED NEAR A
925-850MB FRONT AIDED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES HAS PRODUCED
HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH.

NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA AND AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE POSTED HEADLINES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA AND HAVE CARRIED
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS GRADUALLY
CARRIES THE FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

32

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM
10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058
-KSZ059.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034-KSZ035.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-220915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
412 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE
HAIL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 104 WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N WHITE CITY          38.85N 96.74W
07/21/2010                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            B AVE NEAR THOMAS CREEK COMPLETELY WASHED OUT FROM
            RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER.

0350 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 S WHITE CITY          38.71N 96.74W
07/21/2010                   MORRIS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER OVER HIGHWAY 149 NEAR P AVE

&&

BLAIR

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