Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Topeka, KS

219 
WGUS73 KTOP 210910
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

KSC061-127-197-210945-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-100721T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GEARY-WABAUNSEE-MORRIS-
410 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MORRIS...SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHERN GEARY
COUNTIES...

AT 350 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. 4 MILES NORTH OF WHITE CITY...B 
AVENUE NEAR THOMAS CREEK WAS COMPLETELY WASHED OUT FROM RAPIDLY 
FLOWING WATER. 6 MILES SOUTH OF WHITE CITY...ONE FOOT OF FLOWING 
WATER WAS REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 149 NEAR P AVENUE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTA VISTA...DWIGHT...LATIMER...VOLLAND AND WHITE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 9692 3881 9692 3881 9689 3886 9689
      3887 9691 3892 9691 3906 9624 3874 9611
      3873 9620 3873 9635 3871 9635

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

ELEVATED FRONT(850-925MB) REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR I-70 WITH NEW
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE I-70/TAF CORRIDOR. WILL CARRY THUNDER
VCNTY WITH TEMPO IFR/LIFR UNTIL AROUND 09Z WHEN BETTER CONVERGENCE ON
THE NOSE OF LLVL JET EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT/LIFT MORE
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL KEEP VCNTY GOING UNTIL JUST
BEYOND 12Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST
AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION/CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH SUNRISE AND BECOME GENERALLY
SOUTH BY MIDDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010/

DISCUSSION...
20Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OK AND SOUTHERN KS
WITH PROFILER DATA INDICATING THE FASTER MEAN FLOW ALONG THE NEB
AND KS STATE LINE. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROUGH HAS SET UP JUST
NORTH OF THE KS RIVER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES
SOUTH. CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE HELD TEMPS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE 80S.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS NO REAL FEATURE TO PICK OUT THAT WILL FORCE
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC BASED
STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY EVENING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SFC TROUGH WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THERE TO BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL KS WITH CAPE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J/KG.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE STILL AROUND 15 KFT...SO EVEN WITH SOME DECENT
SHEAR HAIL SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE
IF UPDRAFTS WERE ABLE TO GET VERY TALL. WITH THE SFC TROUGH WELL
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHOLE
AREA WITH LIKELY CHANCES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THINKING CONVECTION WILL BRING SOME
COOLER AIR TO THE SFC. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT OF
TODAY...WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. SO THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN
TODAY /90 TO 95/. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND
WHERE THE CUT OFF FOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH VERSES THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LOW. SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY
AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING EXPIRE THIS EVENING. IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE NEB STATE LINE...IT IS POSSIBLE
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE AROUND EAST CENTRAL KS. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS SEE HOW FORECAST EVOLVES AND WHETHER ANOTHER HEAT
WARNING IS NEEDED.

WOLTERS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

EFFECTIVE FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-45KT...WHICH COULD BRING AN ELEVATED
THREAT INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WELL
WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL CAPPING. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BRING THE BEST BETS FOR DRY WEATHER /AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION/ WITH CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN PUSH UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY AROUND CONCERNING LEVELS.
DIFFICULTY INCREASES FOR FRIDAY AS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE SPECIFICS OF SHORTWAVE TIMING AND LOCATION IN THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE DATA. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MARGINALLY
IN NORTHERN AREAS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PROMISE TO BE QUITE
WARM AND HUMID AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

EXTENDED PERIODS...

FRONT SHOULD BE IN OR NEAR THE AREA FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
PERIODS. PRECIP CHANCES MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH SOME CONVECTION LIKELY ON THE COOL SIDE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES
AND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. FRONTOLYSIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE
SUNDAY TO KEEP ANY REMAINING PRECIP QUITE ISOLATED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES AND DECENT CLOUDS
COVER SUGGEST TEMPS CLOSE TO LATE JULY NORMALS FOR A BETTER BET
AND LONGER TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER COLD
FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA STRONG UPPER TROFFING IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE NO
EARLIER THAN WEDNESDAY.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212345-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT
TIMES...LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING.

HIGH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 107 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 105 THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
747 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW OSAGE CITY         38.63N 95.83W
07/20/2010  E60.00 MPH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LAWN ORNAMENTS BLOWN AROUND

0733 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW READING            38.44N 96.06W
07/20/2010  E60.00 MPH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

            SMALL TREE LIMBS BROKEN. DECK CHAIRS BLOWN AROUND.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE MINNEAPOLIS        39.10N 97.68W
07/20/2010                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE 1700 BLK OF K-160.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
828 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 ESE BALDWIN CITY      38.74N 95.07W
07/20/2010                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOUGALS CO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTING THAT THE KHP
            HAS CLOSED US 56 ON THE DOUGLAS AND JOHNSON COUNTY LINE
            DUE TO WATER.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
829 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HEAVY RAIN       S OSAGE CITY            38.63N 95.83W
07/20/2010  M3.55 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN OSAGE CITY

0753 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW WAVERLY            38.43N 95.66W
07/20/2010  E70.00 MPH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BALDWIN CITY       38.76N 95.20W
07/20/2010                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. ROAD REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE BALDWIN CITY       38.82N 95.13W
07/20/2010                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. 100 BLOCK OF E 2300 RD REMAINS FLOODED.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1103 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     HAIL             9 S JUNCTION CITY       38.90N 96.83W
07/20/2010  E1.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. SOME BRANCH DAMAGE.

&&

KC