Excessive Heat Warning 2, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOCUSED NEAR A
925-850MB FRONT AIDED BY A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES HAS PRODUCED
HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH.

NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA AND AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE POSTED HEADLINES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA AND HAVE CARRIED
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS GRADUALLY
CARRIES THE FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

32

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM
10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058
-KSZ059.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034-KSZ035.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212345-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT
TIMES...LEADING TO ISOLATED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING.

HIGH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 107 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 105 THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BALDWIN CITY       38.76N 95.20W
07/20/2010                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. ROAD REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE BALDWIN CITY       38.82N 95.13W
07/20/2010                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. 100 BLOCK OF E 2300 RD REMAINS FLOODED.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1103 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     HAIL             9 S JUNCTION CITY       38.90N 96.83W
07/20/2010  E1.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. SOME BRANCH DAMAGE.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW ALMA               38.97N 96.35W
07/21/2010                   WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL AREAS OF WATER ONE
            FOOT DEEP FLOWING ACROSS OLD K10 ROAD IN BETWEEN ALMA AND
            ALTA VISTA.

&&

BLAIR