Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Springfield, MO

845 
WGUS73 KSGF 081957
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

MOC105-169-082200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-100708T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
257 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN LACLEDE AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...HAD MOVED OUT AND ENDED ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE OVER OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES FELL 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITH THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. 
EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...RUNOFF AND FLOODING FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL 
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 9208 3761 9225 3757 9226 3748 9264
      3749 9284 3765 9284 3787 9203 3761 9203

$$

WISE

494 
WGUS73 KSGF 082152
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

MOC105-169-082201-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-100708T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
452 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
LACLEDE AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3760 9208 3761 9225 3757 9226 3748 9264
      3749 9284 3765 9284 3787 9203 3761 9203

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
GET A BRIEF BREAK TO START OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 3 AM...THIS FRONT REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINED IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS IS
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WERE PRESENT ON RADAR. THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING TRIGGERED
BY PRESSURE ADVECTION. A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
PRESENT...DEEP UPWARD OMEGA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO THE
ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EASILY EXCEED 3
INCHES. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 4
AM.

STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGION. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT GETTING INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE
LAGGING...SO HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO KEPT THE WATCH END TIME INTACT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND/OR
EXTENDED LATER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT FRONT GETTING
INTO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE THINK THE START OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A HUGE COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT DEW POINTS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP OFF. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL THEN FEATURE MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THAT FRONT RETURNING NORTH. FELT LOW CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH
THE RICH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR TAKING AIM AT SGF FOR THE ONSET OF THE 18Z
TAFS AND WILL DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NEWER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED EAST
OF THE JLN TAF AND WILL MAINLY KEEP THEIR FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
WITH VICINITY WORDING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR
RANGE BUT COULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
  DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AN ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
  IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
  BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. VERY
  HIGH RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY EXCEED TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN
  SOME CASES...MAY RESULT IN A QUICKLY DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING
  SCENARIO OVER SOME AREAS.

  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
  BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
  CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FLOODING
  MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
  DAYS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
  MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
950 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
07/08/2010                   JASPER             MO   NEWSPAPER

            ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING ON GARRISON STREET AT
            INTERSECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND 4TH.

&&

MTERRY