Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Springfield, MO

592 
WGUS73 KSGF 081801
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

MOC057-097-109-082100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-100708T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-
101 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN DADE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

AT 1254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT AFFECTED THE WARNED AREA 
LATE THIS MORNING HAS ENDED. EVEN THOUGH THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED 
RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE WARNED AREA WITH THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9410 3706 9433 3710 9433 3721 9407
      3729 9404 3728 9392 3738 9363 3701 9362

$$

WISE

499 
WGUS73 KSGF 081853
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

MOC057-097-109-081903-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-100708T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO-
153 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN DADE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3706 9410 3706 9433 3710 9433 3721 9407
      3729 9404 3728 9392 3738 9363 3701 9362

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
GET A BRIEF BREAK TO START OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 3 AM...THIS FRONT REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINED IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS IS
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WERE PRESENT ON RADAR. THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING TRIGGERED
BY PRESSURE ADVECTION. A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
PRESENT...DEEP UPWARD OMEGA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO THE
ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EASILY EXCEED 3
INCHES. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 4
AM.

STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGION. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT GETTING INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE
LAGGING...SO HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO KEPT THE WATCH END TIME INTACT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND/OR
EXTENDED LATER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT FRONT GETTING
INTO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE THINK THE START OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A HUGE COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT DEW POINTS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP OFF. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL THEN FEATURE MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THAT FRONT RETURNING NORTH. FELT LOW CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL DROP VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THIS OCCURRING THROUGH
18Z AT KJLN AND KSGF. WENT WITH A PREVAILING IFR GROUP LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO MVFR BETWEEN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TIMING IS A
LITTLE TOUGHER AT KBBG AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER TODAY. KEPT A TEMPO MVFR GROUP IN FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KBBG AND THEN WENT PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
TIMING BECOMES CLEARER AT KBBG...AT LEAST A TEMPO IFR GROUP MAY BE
NEEDED. WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT KJLN AND KSGF
AND THEN ALL THREE SITES TONIGHT AS POTENTIAL IFR TIMING IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OUT THAT FAR.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
413 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
413 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
  SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AN ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNT
  OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
  FLOODING. VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY EXCEED TWO
  INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME CASES...MAY RESULT IN A QUICKLY
  DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING SCENARIO OVER SOME AREAS.

  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
  BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
  CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FLOODING
  MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
  DAYS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
  MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
950 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
07/08/2010                   JASPER             MO   NEWSPAPER

            ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING ON GARRISON STREET AT
            INTERSECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND 4TH.

&&

MTERRY