Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Springfield, MO

623 
WGUS73 KSGF 081509
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1009 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

KSC021-037-MOC011-039-057-097-081800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-100708T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-
1009 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
CHEROKEE...DADE...JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...SOUTHERN CEDAR AND
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 10 AM CDT...LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE CITY 
OF CARTHAGE. GARRISON STREET AT THE INTERSECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND 4TH 
ARE FLOODED AND CLOSED IN CARTHAGE. A COOP OBSERVER IN CARTHAGE 
MEASURED 3.22 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS THROUGH 10 
AM THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT 10 AM EXTENDED FROM JUST 
EAST OF CARTHAGE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO DUDENVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY 
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL 
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHERN DADE 
COUNTIES. THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THIS 
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS IN EASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN 
DADE COUNTIES.   

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9507 3744 9462 3766 9407 3766 9362
      3738 9363 3728 9392 3729 9405 3722 9406
      3710 9433 3706 9462 3699 9462 3700 9507

$$

WISE

180 
WGUS73 KSGF 081753
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

KSC021-037-MOC011-039-057-097-081803-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-100708T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-
1253 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CHEROKEE...DADE...
JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...SOUTHERN CEDAR AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3734 9507 3744 9462 3766 9407 3766 9362
      3738 9363 3728 9392 3729 9405 3722 9406
      3710 9433 3706 9462 3699 9462 3700 9507

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
GET A BRIEF BREAK TO START OFF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 3 AM...THIS FRONT REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINED IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS IS
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WERE PRESENT ON RADAR. THE FIRST WAS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING TRIGGERED
BY PRESSURE ADVECTION. A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING
PRESENT...DEEP UPWARD OMEGA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO THE
ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EASILY EXCEED 3
INCHES. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 4
AM.

STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGION. MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE FRONT GETTING INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL BE
LAGGING...SO HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO KEPT THE WATCH END TIME INTACT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND/OR
EXTENDED LATER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT FRONT GETTING
INTO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE THINK THE START OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A HUGE COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT DEW POINTS WILL TEMPORARILY DROP OFF. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TEMPERATURES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL THEN FEATURE MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE
REGION...ALONG WITH THAT FRONT RETURNING NORTH. FELT LOW CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010/

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN AND
NEAR SHOWERS. THE JOPLIN TERMINAL WILL BE MOST IMPACT BY SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SHOWERS IN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
413 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
413 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

...FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
  SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AN ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNT
  OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
  FLOODING. VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY EXCEED TWO
  INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME CASES...MAY RESULT IN A QUICKLY
  DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING SCENARIO OVER SOME AREAS.

  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
  BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
  CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FLOODING
  MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
  DAYS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
  MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PASS ALONG REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN