Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MOVING WEST FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SETTLES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
ERODES AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AIRMASS USED MOSTLY ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY...CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. SOME STORMS COULD
STILL SLIP INTO NW PART OF GREENBRIER FROM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
POCAHONTAS. EXPECTING A FEW MORE STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS EXTREME SW
VA AND NW NC THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND HVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH
ANY REMAINING STORMS. AS BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT...PLENTY
OF FUEL REMAINS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...AND AS THIS BOUNDARY
SETTLES JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHWS/TSTORMS INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVERS TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING MORE QUICKLY AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE QPF BOMB CONSISTENT
ON THE OP GFS...IF HVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE NE CWA
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SPC CONTINUES A SLT
RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH BETTER SHEAR POSSIBLY LEADING TO
DMGG WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. ITS PROXIMITY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND POINTS EAST
AND SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN SUNDAY
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING IF NOT GONE BY THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

1000-85H THICKNESSES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FAIRLY
LIGHT WESTERLY REGIME WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLF AND LWB HAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE ADDED FOG AND STRATUS IN FOR BLF AND KEPT THE LIFR CONDITIONS
IN AT LWB OVERNIGHT.

THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
MAY APPROACH DAN LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL MUCH MORE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
STORMS BEING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MAINLY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
282000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE SLOW MOVERS...SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>045-282000-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SMALL HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE SLOW MOVERS...SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
934 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

VAZ044-045-058-280230-
CAMPBELL VA-HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
934 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...HALIFAX AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 932 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
BROOKNEAL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LONG ISLAND AROUND 940 PM...HODGES AROUND 955
PM...ALTAVISTA AROUND 1005 PM...RUSTBURG AROUND 1015 PM AND EVINGTON
AROUND 1020 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3691 7913 3720 7936 3724 7934 3735 7898
      3699 7892

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     HAIL             5 N CONCORD             37.42N 78.97W
05/27/2010  E0.25 INCH       APPOMATTOX         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL FELL IN STONEWALL.

1020 PM     HAIL             5 SE FOREST             37.32N 79.22W
05/27/2010  E0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL ON LEESVILLE ROAD SOUTH OF
            LYNCHBURG.

&&

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

VAZ034-035-045>047-280400-
AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-BEDFORD VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BEDFORD...BUCKINGHAM AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 1057 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
CONCORD...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR AMHERST AROUND 1115 PM...FALCONERVILLE AROUND
1130 PM...MADISON HEIGHTS AROUND 1145 PM AND ELON AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3733 7852 3737 7858 3734 7860 3727 7867
      3722 7882 3715 7896 3736 7942 3775 7907
      3772 7906 3770 7899 3767 7895 3756 7891
      3755 7884 3765 7882 3765 7872 3739 7842

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1137 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HAIL             TOGA                    37.50N 78.62W
05/27/2010  E1.00 INCH       BUCKINGHAM         VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1204 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

VAZ034-035-045-046-280430-
AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-
1204 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BEDFORD
AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 1201 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORKS OF BUFFALO TO 7 MILES EAST OF LYNCHBURG CITY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3739 7928 3769 7931 3771 7901 3770 7899
      3767 7895 3763 7894 3760 7893 3756 7890
      3737 7885

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

VAZ035-280500-
AMHERST VA-
1230 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AMHERST COUNTY...

AT 1227 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF AMHERST...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FALCONERVILLE AROUND 1235 AM.

LAT...LON 3749 7900 3746 7916 3757 7925 3762 7910

DS