Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
743 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MOVING WEST FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SETTLES
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
ERODES AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE AIRMASS USED MOSTLY ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY...CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. SOME STORMS COULD
STILL SLIP INTO NW PART OF GREENBRIER FROM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
POCAHONTAS. EXPECTING A FEW MORE STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS EXTREME SW
VA AND NW NC THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND HVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH
ANY REMAINING STORMS. AS BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT...PLENTY
OF FUEL REMAINS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT...AND AS THIS BOUNDARY
SETTLES JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...IT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHWS/TSTORMS INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL STORMS COULD BE SLOW
MOVERS TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING MORE QUICKLY AS STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE QPF BOMB CONSISTENT
ON THE OP GFS...IF HVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE NE CWA
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SPC CONTINUES A SLT
RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH BETTER SHEAR POSSIBLY LEADING TO
DMGG WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. ITS PROXIMITY WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND POINTS EAST
AND SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS IN SUNDAY
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING IF NOT GONE BY THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

1000-85H THICKNESSES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FAIRLY
LIGHT WESTERLY REGIME WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. STAYED
CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLF AND LWB HAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE ADDED FOG AND STRATUS IN FOR BLF AND KEPT THE LIFR CONDITIONS
IN AT LWB OVERNIGHT.

THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
MAY APPROACH DAN LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
ANY STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL MUCH MORE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
STORMS BEING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MAINLY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING PART OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
282000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE SLOW MOVERS...SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>045-282000-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
352 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SMALL HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE SLOW MOVERS...SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
647 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

VAZ007-272345-
TAZEWELL VA-
647 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 645 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
TAZEWELL...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BANDY AROUND 655 PM...CEDAR BLUFF AROUND 700
PM...JEWELL RIDGE AROUND 705 PM AND GLEN BURKE AROUND 715 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3719 8183 3720 8178 3725 8174 3725 8173
      3721 8167 3721 8155 3707 8154 3705 8183
      3710 8189 3714 8191

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

NCZ001-018-280030-
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
727 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 724 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR TODD AROUND 735 PM...MEAT CAMP AROUND 800 PM
AND SILVERSTONE AROUND 830 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LAT...LON 3631 8189 3634 8183 3634 8172 3636 8175
      3645 8173 3649 8159 3633 8148 3613 8182
      3616 8183 3619 8189 3622 8192 3625 8190
      3630 8191

KK