Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS HAS TAKEN PLACE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
MILD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ALONG SPINE OF APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD
THREATS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...SO ANTICIPATE SLOW MOVEMENT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO TONIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT PRIMARILY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL 9PM THIS
EVENING FOR STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR A LOCALLIZED
DOWNBURST OF WIND.

BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING HAS ALIGNED N-S ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE HIGHER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN BREAK FROM ERN WV INTO
THE ERN TN MTNS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING...THINK THE
CAP TO THE EAST WILL WEAKEN AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE
AND DEVELOP INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THIS WILL HAPPEN THE
QUICKEST OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NW. FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN CWA IS MUCH WEAKER SO IT MAY BE LATE
IN THE EVENING B4 ACTIVITY GETS GOING THERE.

OPPORTUNITY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS WITH LOCALLIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS. LACK OF STEERING WIND
SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY FROM PULSE TYPE STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO ANYTHING ORGANIZED. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR B4 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SHOWERS WANING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SURFACE FRONT BROUGHT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MAINLY A
WIND SHIFT. WITH NO CHANGE IN DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. LACK OF
SUBSTATIAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS ALSO SUGGESTS TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE
JUST AS WARM...READINGS IN THE 70S/80S. FORECAST LAPSE RATES DON'T
LOOK AS STEEP ON SATURDAY...BUT BASED ON LINGERING MOISTURE THINK
THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHC OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA...ESP
OVER THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING POPS THROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.

THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND IN
THE VCNTY OF THE MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY PROPOGATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING.
AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...TSRA SHOULD WEAKEN WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO FORM...PRODUCING
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE CURRENT RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE SATURATED. THINK AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MTNS WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TO START OFF THE DAY SATURDAY
THEN TRANSITION INTO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE MTNS...PRIMARILY AFTER 18 UTC WITH
LCL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE VCNTY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL LINGER PRIMARILY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT TSRA IN THE MTNS...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SUBVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>047.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1201 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-WVZ042>045-
291615-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1201 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT BESIDES FLASH FLOODING INCLUDES
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ058-059-291615-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1201 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL...BUT THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             5 N PRINCETON           37.44N 81.10W
05/28/2010  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             WV   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

BS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             PRINCETON               37.37N 81.10W
05/28/2010  E1.50 INCH       MERCER             WV   PUBLIC

&&

BS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             TAZEWELL                37.12N 81.52W
05/28/2010  E0.50 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   POST OFFICE

&&

REB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 S CHRISTIANSBURG      37.10N 80.40W
05/28/2010  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

REB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
515 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

VAZ014-016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-282215-
AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-
CAMPBELL VA-CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
PATRICK VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-ROANOKE VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
515 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BEDFORD...
BOTETOURT...BUCKINGHAM...CAMPBELL...CARROLL...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...
HENRY...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA...ROANOKE AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS FROM ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY TO FLOYD...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF SALEM AND ROANOKE.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST...INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA...BETWEEN 5:00 AND
7:00 PM. THIS WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...ROCKY MOUNT AND COMMUNITIES AROUND SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3703 7900 3705 7910 3691 7913 3656 7952
      3657 8084 3659 8086 3805 7941 3788 7913
      3780 7916 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7898
      3754 7887 3755 7884 3764 7883 3764 7874
      3776 7863 3776 7851 3779 7848 3770 7825