Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...MDT RISK CONTINUES FOR TNT WITH SVR TSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY THIS EVENING. NEW SVR SQUALL LINE FORMING
JUST EAST OF MINNEAPOLIS. THIS IS A REGION 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
WITH LITTLE CIN AND STRONG WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO CANADA TNT WITH
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON THU.

DESPITE DYNAMICS AND BEST WARM ADVECTION LIFTING NWD...SEVERAL
MESO MODELS BUILD SQUALL LINE TO THE SW AND MOVE IT SEWD THROUGH
SRN WI THIS EVENING. SINCE MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE A
LINE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT...HOWEVER
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE WRN CWA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MESO VORTICES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND
PRODUCE TORNADOES. SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN
WIND...FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS AND BETTER CAPE. GIVEN THIS AND
WITH ONLY MODEST WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS...THE OVERALL SPEED COULD
BE LOWER THAN YOUR TYPICAL SQUALL LINE. HAVE THUS MENTIONED HEAVY
RAIN WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT VEGETATION...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 3 INCHES.

A CHANCE OF TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THU WITH BEST CHANCES IN SE
WI WHERE FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FROM NE TO OHIO FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER WI ON SAT. A DRIER BUT CONTINUED VERY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...WARM SUMMER TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SAT NT WITH FROPA ON SUN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL MON INTO TUE WHILE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT RETURNS FOR TUE NT AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAIN CONCERNS ARE
TIMING OF THE STORMS. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...MOVING NW TO SE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z. AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS TRICKY TO FORECAST...THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS ARE NOT SET IN
STONE. TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED FOR TIMING AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST.

IF A SQUALL LINE DOES DEVELOP...COULD SEE SEVERE WINDS WITHIN
STORMS AS WELL AS HAIL. EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF PRECIP. WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MVFR SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
IFR AND LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE AREA. QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-067>069.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-152115-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
715 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO MINERAL
POINT...AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL YIELD HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. LOCAL FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN RURAL AREAS IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. IN URBAN AREAS...IT ONLY TAKES A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND EXPECTED SPEED OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

AN AIR QUALITY WATCH ISSUED BY THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL
RESOURCES IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
RETURNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-152115-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
715 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

DDV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSON                 43.32N 88.16W
07/14/2010  M1.07 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.07 INCHES OF RAIN DURING A 20 MINUTE DURATION...SOME
            WATER OVER CURBS

&&

SEARS