River Flood Warning 23, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...

A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI FUELED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND REDEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED IN THE HILLS OF THE WI RIVER VALLEY
AND IN THE URBAN AREAS OF WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES. MORE THAN
4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT.

AT 0830Z...THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF
WI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...AND EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY CLEARING THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 925MB TEMPS LINGERING IN THE 22 TO 23 DEGREE
RANGE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S...COOLER NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTH.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER ONTARIO WILL CROSS SOUTEHRN WI LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING. MODEL SNDGS SHOW CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG RANGE...SO
ADDED SCHC TSRA TO FCST FROM 21Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

925MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN...AND THE CWA SHOULD SEE
UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HUMID AS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. DEWPTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE 60S AT THIS TIME...SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW
100. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LOWER DEWPTS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COMPLICATE THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAYBREAK. ONE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST CORNER OF ILLINOIS TO JUST SOUTH OF MADISON.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS STORMS DUE TO WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
3000 TO 5000 FT AGL. DOWNDRAFTS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST-NORTH. GIVEN AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN...EXPECT MULTIPLE LAYERS OF
CLOUDS WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CHANGING RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST GROUND TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OF 3000 TO 5000 AGL. THESE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHLY VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WINDS THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE
SHOULD BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS UNTIL ABOUT
7 AM OR SO. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL GENERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...34/AFK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-160945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
437 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THERE IS A FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE AREA
EAST OF MADISON AS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

LMZ643>646-160945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
437 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MRC

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
07/15/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 3 FEET WATER OVER ROAD AT 1400 SOUTH 82ND
            ST...ESTIMATED RAIN FALL TOTAL FROM RADAR

0230 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
07/15/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 2 FEET WATER OVER ROAD...STALLED CAR AT 83RD
            AND ORCHARD...RAIN FALL ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

0234 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW WEST ALLIS         43.00N 88.04W
07/15/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            BASEMENT FLOODING AT 2100 SOUTH 92ND...RAINFALL ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR

0249 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW WAUKESHA           43.00N 88.25W
07/15/2010  E3.50 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLOODED INTERSECTION AT SUNSET DR AND RAILROAD
            INTERSECTION...ESTIMATED 2.5 INCHES DEEP...ESTIMATED
            RAINFALL FROM RADAR

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
07/15/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            EASTBOUND LANES BLOCKED BY WATER...GREENFIELD AVE BETWEEN
            HWY 116 AND HWY 124...RAINFALL ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
07/15/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            EASTBOUND LANES BLOCKED BY WATER...GREENFIELD AVE BETWEEN
            116 ST AND 124 ST...RAINFALL ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

SEARS

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