Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH LIKELY FLOODING AS WELL AS A SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE TODAY...

LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS AT 06Z INDICATED SURFACE LOW AT THE
CONFLUENCE OF AR/MO/IL/KY/TN AND CONTINUING TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM FLASH
FLOODING AS THE MAIN WAVE OF RAIN MOVES IN TOWARD DAWN AND LASTS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH AS A
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EAST BY TONIGHT. WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THE REST OF TODAY...FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF ON A 60 KNOT LLJ...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
COLUMN AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TD/S STREAMING IN THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING SCENARIO
WILL EXIST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM
MONDAY MORNING.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ELEVATED...HOWEVER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT. ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY DYNAMIC WITH
GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS JUST BEFORE DAWN WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
ABOVE 300 M2/S2. EXPECT STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MOSTLY LINEAR
SEGMENT...HOWEVER EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS/BOW ECHOES WILL BE A
CONCERN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA UNTIL 5AM...HOWEVER MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FOR EXTENSIONS
OR NEW TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND ONLY RISE
INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON ON STRONG WAA. HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO THE ONGOING WEATHER THREAT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SUNDAY)...

CONSENSUS IS BUILDING THAT THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL SEE A VAST
IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR WET DERBY WEEKEND. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEEK WITH OUR ONLY REAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST UPPER AIR PATTERN ON MONDAY INDICATES A WEAKENING
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
JET WILL HAVE EXITED THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY THIS TIME...AND WILL
EXTEND FROM TEXAS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE AXIS
OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RESPONSIBLE FOR SUNDAY'S HEAVY RAINS
WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WEST
VIRGINIA. AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING
THE DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ENDING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS THE AXIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 500MB TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS AS A STRONG JET MOVES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A
PRETTY STOUT COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS WILL TRACK TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BY 12Z AND MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST... LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL INCREASE
TO 50 TO 60KT. IN ADDITION HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH OUT THE DAY. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS CIGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........BJS
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030715-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
308 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /208 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS WEEKEND
AND THE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AND A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING SCENARIO WILL EXIST FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD BE IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND STORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING. STAYED INFORMED OF THE LATEST RIVER AND
STREAM FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR
A RIVER OR STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
447 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLENDALE               37.37N  85.58W
05/02/2010                   GREEN              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000245

TENHARMSEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
502 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE SMITHS GROVE       37.09N  86.16W
05/02/2010                   EDMONSON           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING HAS CLOSED NEW GROVE ROAD AND CHALYBEATE
            SCHOOL ROAD ALONG 31W IN SOUTHERN EDMONSON COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000246

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

INZ090-091-KYZ024-025-028>030-020945-
BRECKINRIDGE-BULLITT-FLOYD-HARDIN-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MEADE-
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS...

AT 459 AM EDT/359 AM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
WEST OF NEW ALBANY...TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARDINSBURG AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   NEW ALBANY...
   VALLEY STATION...
   NEW BOSTON...
   WEST POINT...
   FAIRDALE...
   LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...
   ST. MATTHEWS...
   VINE GROVE...
   RINEYVILLE...
   LYNDON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 8632 3808 8610 3833 8599 3833 8579
      3830 8580 3827 8576 3829 8569 3833 8566
      3833 8555 3813 8558 3800 8575 3769 8597
      3769 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 269DEG 31KT 3831 8589 3808 8598
          3796 8619 3773 8631

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE BUFFALO            37.48N  85.65W
05/02/2010                   LARUE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARUE COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED FLASH FLOODING AFFECTING
            HIGHWAY 61 AND 470 IN SOUTHEASTERN LARUE COUNTY.
            SPECIFICALLY NEAR THE TOWNS OF BUFFALO AND MOUNT
            SHERMAN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000247

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
533 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RAYWICK                 37.56N  85.43W
05/02/2010                   MARION             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED WATER TO FLOW OVER A BRIDGE
            ON ST. FRANCIS HIGHWAY NEAR RAYWICK. DEBRIS FROM THE
            WATER HAS ALSO BLOCKED THE ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000248

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 WNW CAMPBELLSVILLE    37.40N  85.50W
05/02/2010                   TAYLOR             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TAYLOR COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
            WATER IN A HOME AND DRIVEWAY FLOODED BY WATER. THE
            RESIDENT WAS NOT ABLE TO LEAVE DUE TO THE DRIVEWAY BEING
            WASHED OUT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000249

SCHOETTMER