Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGIONS HAS EXPIRED. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUR ATTENTION IS SOLELY FOCUSED ON WHAT IS DEVELOPING
INTO AN EXTENSIVE FLOODING EVENT. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS
HINTED AT RAIN RE-DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LINE OF CONVECTION...AND THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED. EXPECT STEADY
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF AN OHIO
COUNTY TO WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA LINE. ONLY A FEW COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA WILL SEE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS FORECAST FROM MID-MORNING ON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH UP TO ANOTHER 2 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THIS WILL EXASPERATE AN ALREADY BAD
FLOODING SITUATION. AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES...FLASH FLOODING
EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INTO A WIDESPREAD FLOODING
EVENT AS MODERATE AND MAJOR RIVERS RISE. PAY ATTENTION TO OUR LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS FOR EXPECTED CRESTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH LIKELY FLOODING AS WELL AS A SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE TODAY...

LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS AT 06Z INDICATED SURFACE LOW AT THE
CONFLUENCE OF AR/MO/IL/KY/TN AND CONTINUING TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM FLASH
FLOODING AS THE MAIN WAVE OF RAIN MOVES IN TOWARD DAWN AND LASTS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH AS A
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EAST BY TONIGHT. WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THE REST OF TODAY...FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF ON A 60 KNOT LLJ...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
COLUMN AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TD/S STREAMING IN THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING SCENARIO
WILL EXIST.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ELEVATED...HOWEVER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT. ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY DYNAMIC WITH
GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS JUST BEFORE DAWN WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
ABOVE 300 M2/S2. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA UNTIL 5AM...HOWEVER MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FOR
EXTENSIONS OR NEW TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND ONLY RISE
INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON ON STRONG WAA. HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO THE ONGOING WEATHER THREAT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SUNDAY)...

CONSENSUS IS BUILDING THAT THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL SEE A VAST
IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR WET DERBY WEEKEND. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEEK WITH OUR ONLY REAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST UPPER AIR PATTERN ON MONDAY INDICATES A WEAKENING
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
JET WILL HAVE EXITED THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY THIS TIME...AND WILL
EXTEND FROM TEXAS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE AXIS
OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RESPONSIBLE FOR SUNDAY'S HEAVY RAINS
WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WEST
VIRGINIA. AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING
THE DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ENDING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS THE AXIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 500MB TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS AS A STRONG JET MOVES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A
PRETTY STOUT COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES
IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z FOR SDF AND
CONSIDERABLY LONGER FOR LEX AND BWG.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AT SDF AFTER AROUND 00Z WITH CEILINGS RISING
ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS AROUND THE 08Z TO 10Z THRESHOLD.

AT LEX...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z...WITH VFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER 12Z.

AT BWG...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE 02 TO 05Z TIME FRAME...WITH CEILINGS
RISING TO VFR AFTER 09Z.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. AT SDF...WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AROUND 03Z. AT BWG AND LEX...THIS
WIND SWITCH WILL OCCUR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER AROUND 05Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

UPDATE.........JSD
SHORT TERM.....JSD
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-031545-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1043 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING TO MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALTHOUGH RAIN
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS. DAMAGING
WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND STORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING. STAYED INFORMED OF THE LATEST RIVER AND
STREAM FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR
A RIVER OR STREAM. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING...SEVERE WEATHER...OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-031545-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1043 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
AGGRAVATE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND STORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING. STAYED INFORMED OF THE LATEST RIVER AND
STREAM FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR
A RIVER OR STREAM. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JSD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>