Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

TORNADO WATCH 132 CONTINUES UNTIL NOON EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE OHIO RIVER.

AT 9 AM EDT...THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM MONROE COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LEXINGTON AND THE
EASTERN BLUEGRASS. STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM
FOR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA NORTHEAST THROUGH MADISON COUNTY.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY...INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN...THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LEXINGTON.

STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...BUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
WORSEN FLOODING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WEST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 10 AM EDT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH LIKELY FLOODING AS WELL AS A SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE TODAY...

LATEST RUC MESOANALYSIS AT 06Z INDICATED SURFACE LOW AT THE
CONFLUENCE OF AR/MO/IL/KY/TN AND CONTINUING TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM FLASH
FLOODING AS THE MAIN WAVE OF RAIN MOVES IN TOWARD DAWN AND LASTS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH AS A
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE EAST BY TONIGHT. WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THE REST OF TODAY...FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
GULF ON A 60 KNOT LLJ...PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
COLUMN AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TD/S STREAMING IN THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS...A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING SCENARIO
WILL EXIST.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ELEVATED...HOWEVER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT. ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY DYNAMIC WITH
GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS JUST BEFORE DAWN WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
ABOVE 300 M2/S2. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA UNTIL 5AM...HOWEVER MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FOR
EXTENSIONS OR NEW TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND ONLY RISE
INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON ON STRONG WAA. HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO THE ONGOING WEATHER THREAT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SUNDAY)...

CONSENSUS IS BUILDING THAT THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL SEE A VAST
IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR WET DERBY WEEKEND. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEEK WITH OUR ONLY REAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVING MONDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST UPPER AIR PATTERN ON MONDAY INDICATES A WEAKENING
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
JET WILL HAVE EXITED THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH BY THIS TIME...AND WILL
EXTEND FROM TEXAS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE AXIS
OF VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RESPONSIBLE FOR SUNDAY'S HEAVY RAINS
WILL HAVE SAGGED SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WEST
VIRGINIA. AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING
THE DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ENDING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MONDAY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS THE AXIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 500MB TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS AS A STRONG JET MOVES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A
PRETTY STOUT COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY. UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PUMPED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SURGE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS WELL ENOUGH MIXED THAT LLWS
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY TO HOW QUICKLY
KSDF/KBWG BEGIN TO GET RID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BEEN
OPTIMISTIC AND BROUGHT THEM TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS
KLEX IS CONCERNED...IT SEEMS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND DO NOT EXPECT RELIEF UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO MAKE THEIR PUSH
EASTWARD.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

MESOSCALE......JSD
SHORT TERM.....JSD
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......JBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030715-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
308 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /208 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS MENTIONED ABOVE.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS WEEKEND
AND THE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY AND A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING SCENARIO WILL EXIST FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD BE IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE WEEKEND STORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING. STAYED INFORMED OF THE LATEST RIVER AND
STREAM FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR
A RIVER OR STREAM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

SCHOETTMER

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