Severe Thunderstorm Warning 534, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN ZONE OF STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED
BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ~1200 J/KG AND ~40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN SEVERE CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED GIVEN LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL
VALUES AND WEAK AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE LIMITING ANY TORNADO
RISK FOR NOW AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES...THE RISK FOR
STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD
REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING IN ASSOC WITH ONE LAST LOBE OF VORTICITY
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH...SO HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE
SPOTTY SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH ON AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS A STABLE WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NATION. AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
80S WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO IT WILL BE DRY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUEDAY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL SETUP ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUST UP AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA RESULTING IN
CONTINUED COOL DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS...NO RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS AS THEY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA.  UNFORTUNATLY...THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN AT CRITICAL LEVELS. /19/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALL OF OUR CWA REMAINS UNDER AN OFFICIAL BURN BAN
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS COMBINED
WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL AND OTHER AREAS MAY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHAT AREAS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
RECEIVED THIS EVENING WILL DICTATE WHAT AREAS BECOME CRITICAL THIS
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH GLH/GWO BRINGING
WITH IT TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
STARTING 00-02Z IN THE NW. THE E/SE SITES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06-07Z. WE
MAY SEE SOME MVFR VIS DEVELOP FOR MEI/HBG AFTER 09Z AS THEY WILL BE
THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE THE DRIER AIR FILTER IN. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE ERN SITES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK
FOR CLEARING FROM NW TO SE STARTING 00-02Z IN THE NW. THE E/SE SITES
SHOULD CLEAR BY 06-07Z. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VIS DEVELOP FOR MEI/HBG
AFTER 09Z AS THEY WILL BE THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE THE DRIER AIR
FILTER IN. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  82  54  78 /  23   0   5   3
MERIDIAN      51  82  51  80 /  31   1   6   3
VICKSBURG     52  84  51  79 /  16   0   4   3
HATTIESBURG   58  83  56  78 /  28   0   3   3
NATCHEZ       55  81  55  75 /  17   0   4   3
GREENVILLE    55  84  51  77 /  18   2   3   3
GREENWOOD     54  84  49  75 /  27   3   4   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/15/19/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY USHERING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE
AND THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION SHOULD
NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

LAZ025-MSZ053-059-122115-
TENSAS LA-JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
328 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF ST. JOSEPH AT 329 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             7 ESE HAMBURG           33.19N 91.69W
10/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   OTHER FEDERAL

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN OVERFLOW NATIONAL
            WILDLIFE REFUGE.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             7 W CROSSETT            33.13N 92.09W
10/12/2010  E1.00 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   OTHER FEDERAL

            QUARTER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL
            WILDLIFE REFUGE.

&&

JFAIRLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

MSZ025-027>029-036-122110-
LEFLORE MS-WEBSTER MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-HOLMES MS-
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF NORTH
CARROLLTON TO SEVEN PINES AT 341 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL HOLMES...CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...CENTRAL
CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LEFLORE
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
10/12/2010                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON WHITE CIRCLE ROAD, HIGHWAY 7 AND IN THE
            JACKSON AVENUE AND VANCE ROAD AREA.

&&

JFAIRLY

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