Severe Thunderstorm Warning 528, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

.UPDATE...

SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW TO OCCUR SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH MODELS
HAVING OVERESTIMATED INITIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AR/NRN LA APPROACHES AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WE'LL SEE SCATTERED
TSTMS ERUPT ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AND PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVNG AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z LOCAL WRF.

HAVE BACKED ON POPS A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT ALL OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK ON TRACK AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE ERN SITES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK
FOR CLEARING FROM NW TO SE STARTING 00-02Z IN THE NW. THE E/SE SITES
SHOULD CLEAR BY 06-07Z. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VIS DEVELOP FOR MEI/HBG
AFTER 09Z AS THEY WILL BE THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE THE DRIER AIR
FILTER IN. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  55  82  53 /  38  23   0   3
MERIDIAN      80  53  81  52 /  43  31   1   4
VICKSBURG     83  52  83  52 /  38  16   0   3
HATTIESBURG   82  59  83  57 /  43  28   0   3
NATCHEZ       81  55  81  55 /  34  17   0   3
GREENVILLE    81  55  83  53 /  44  18   2   4
GREENWOOD     79  54  84  52 /  43  27   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY USHERING IN COOLER/DRIER AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE
AND THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION SHOULD
NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

ARZ074-121755-
ASHLEY AR-
1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL APPROACHING CROSSETT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF WEST CROSSETT AT 1236 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL ASHLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

COHEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

ARZ075-121830-
CHICOT AR-
116 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVES EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN DESHA COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS AROUND DERMOTT
AND WILL RESULT IN BLOWING DUST. THE BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE AT TIMES.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHICOT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

COHEN

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