Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS PATTERN WILL END BY MID WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY SHIFTS AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NEAR MISSOURI MOVING EAST
TOWARD INDIANA. RADAR DISPLAY INDICATES LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND A FEW STORMS PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
STRETCHING EAST INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE QUITE HIGH IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...INDICATING THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. SPC CAPE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS OVER 2K OF CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN
THIS EVENING AND THE NAM SHOWS STRONG LIFT WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT
LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL USE A BLEND HERE.

GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EXPECTED APPROACHING DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AGAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINS. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS QUITE APPROPRIATE AS
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES SATURATED GROUND.

AS CONVECTION ENDS AND EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRECIPITATION
CHCS SHOULD DWINDLE...HOWEVER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING A FEW
LINGERING SCATTERED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MOIST AIR
MASS AND QUICK FLOW ALOFT.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS WILL AIM FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THE VERY WARM AND
VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS CAPE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOARS INTO THE 2K-3K RANGE. ACCOMPANIED WITH
LI/S OF -6 TO -7 CAN SEE NO REASON WHY ANOTHER ROUND OF PERSISTENCE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR. AGAIN...PWATS REMAINS VERY HIGH
NEAR 2 INCHES...THUS ANY STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS.

WILL TRY TO ADD SOME TIMING TO THE CONVECTION AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY...FOCUSING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AGAIN WITH A VARIABLE CLOUDY SKY ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY REACH THEIR PERSISTENT LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S. MAVMOS
HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL STICK CLOSE.

COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY SATURATED
DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH
LIKELY POPS...BUT ATTEMPT TO TAPER THINGS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
WILL KEEP SOME POPS AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
LINGERING FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW BACKSIDE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE RGN FOR
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH VERY WARM
H7 EXCEEDING 10C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY...BUT VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FORCING AND THE WARM
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
REINSTATED.

MODELS THEN HINTING AT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. IF
THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE
TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAFS/...
STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH AN EXTENDED
VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SPECIFIC TIMING OF IMPACTS TO EACH OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. MORE DETAIL WILL BE
EMPLOYED VIA AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST AND MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OR LOWER IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

IN WAKE OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY...PRESENCE OF
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ036-037-039-
043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-152200-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
555 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA RIVERS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
507 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW LAFAYETTE          40.36N 86.94W
06/14/2010                   TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            HOG BARN ROOF TORN OFF AND TREES DOWNED AT APPROXIMATELY
            COUNTY ROADS 500 W AND 75S.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
520 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             3 W LAFAYETTE           40.41N 86.93W
06/14/2010  U0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALONG STATE ROUTE 26

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
524 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELPHI                  40.58N 86.67W
06/14/2010                   CARROLL            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED IN DELPHI.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
548 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             8 SSE LAFAYETTE         40.30N 86.81W
06/14/2010  E0.88 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
549 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSE LAFAYETTE         40.30N 86.81W
06/14/2010  M45 MPH          TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT 800 SOUTH AND 450 EAST JUST NORTHEAST OF CONCORD
            INDIANA

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
553 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             1 N CLARKS HILL         40.26N 86.72W
06/14/2010  E0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DTUCEK