Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS INDIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NOSED INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS FOUND ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS PUSHING
NORTHEAST. SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WAS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH HINTS OF A LINGERING BOUNDARY WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURE REMAINED VERY MOIST AND UNCOMFORTABLE...AROUND 70.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TONIGHT/.

H8 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST APPEARS TO BE RIDING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THUS THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THUS WILL TAPER POPS FROM HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PROTECTIVE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND THICKNESS PROPAGATION INDICATES MOVEMENT TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THUS WILL NEED TO INCLUDE MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LITTLE CHANGE
IN AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED DEW POINTS AROUND
70...WHICH MAVMOS HANDLES QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON MONDAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY SHOW CAPE NEAR 1.5-2K J/KG AND LI/S OF -4 TO
-5. H7 TEMPS APPEAR TO FALL BELOW 10C...AND THE MID LEVEL CAP
APPEARS DETERIORATED. THUS TSRA APPEAR LIKELY ON MONDAY. SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS ON MONDAY...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY AS PWATS ARE AGAIN
NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS THAT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SUN WILL STICK CLOSE TO
MAVMOS HIGHS AS THEY APPEAR PRETTY REASONABLE. ANY AREAS THAT DO
SEE SUN WILL SURELY SHOOT WARMER QUICKLY...WHILE AREAS THAT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDS MAY NOT REACH MAVMOS HIGHS.

NAM EJECTS A UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND APPEARS TO BE QUITE
OVERAGGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN AT IND. ALTHOUGH
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS APPEARS RATHER OVERDONE AND LOOKS
LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS BEING SAID...THE GFS AGREES A WAVE
WILL CONE ACROSS INDIANA ON MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK LLJ STREAMS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS
AGAIN MORE TSRA LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AGAIN WITH WITH THE VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EXPECTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70 WILL BE THE
WAY TO GO.

THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW BOUNTIFUL CAPE OVER 2500
J/KG AND AGAIN LI/S NEAR -5 TO -6. UPPER SUPPORT SHOWS A RIDGE
EXITING TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE WAVES AT THIS
POINT IS DETERIORATING. THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

YET ANOTHER WAVE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN
AS THE PERSISTENT PATTERN REMAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUE QUICK FLOW ALOFT CONFIDENCE IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS
LOW. AS THINGS APPEAR NOW...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY.

ECMWF THEN HINTS AT A COUPLE OF QUICK WAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW BUT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS QUICKLY EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN DUE TO TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
UNCERTAINTY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 140024Z TAFS/...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN INDIANA TO EASTERN MISSOURI
WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TAF SITES THIS EVENING.  AS A
RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE I70 CORRIDOR.  RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AFTER FIRST BAND MOVES
THROUGH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS SOUTH OF KLAF.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE...CHANCES SHOULD
BE LOW ENOUGH TO JUST GO CB IN TAFS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INDIANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
TAFS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS FROM 35 HND TO 5 THOUSAND
FEET.

AFTER THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
REST OF THE NIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-052>057-062>065-070>072-141915-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-OWEN-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-141915-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WABASH
RIVER. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER UNTIL AT
LEAST SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD PROLONG OR EXACERBATE THE HIGH WATER
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-067-141915-
SULLIVAN-KNOX-
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WABASH
RIVER. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER UNTIL AT
LEAST SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD PROLONG OR EXACERBATE THE HIGH WATER
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ061-068-069-141915-
GREENE-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

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