Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Bartholomew County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS PATTERN WILL END BY MID WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY SHIFTS AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
ALL WEEKEND IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS CURRENT ROUND
OF STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT THREAT WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN PRIME FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOIST AIR AND HOT TEMPS IN PLACE.
GFS/NAM/EURO ARE ALL SHOWING SB CAPES BETWEEN 3-5000 J/KG AND LI/S
IN THE -6/-8 RANGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. DYNAMICS ARE
STILL POOR...BUT THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE PROVEN TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR CONVECTION. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK
ON DAYS 1 AND 2. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAT THE GFS IS HINTING AT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
IT MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS AREA AND NEITHER
THE EURO OR NAM ARE PICKING UP ON IT.

CARRIED LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ANTICIPATE IT TO BE
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SO...DROPPED TO CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BACK TO LIKELY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS/EURO WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT FURTHEST SOUTH.
TUESDAY/S ENVIRONMENT WILL BE THE SAME AS TODAY/S...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. FLASH FLOODING WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW PWATS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING TIME FRAME. NAM/EURO
STILL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING...WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
CROSS SECTIONS ABRUPTLY DRY OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH WED 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
LOW...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE PULLED IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT. AFTER THAT...WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CALM.

TEMPS...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH
A BLEND. HIGHS IN 80S SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR CLOUD COVER WITH
BREAKS/SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. AS FAR AS LOWS...LEANED ON THE
WARMER SIDE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER...AND
THEN WENT ON LOWER SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEARER SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
WILL KEEP SOME POPS AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
LINGERING FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW BACKSIDE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE RGN FOR
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH VERY WARM
H7 EXCEEDING 10C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY...BUT VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FORCING AND THE WARM
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE REINSTATED.

MODELS THEN HINTING AT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. IF
THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE
TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141200Z TAFS/...
EARLIER IFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MIXED THINGS UP A BIT WITH
STORMS LINED UP NEAR AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT 6 AM
EDT AS A FRONT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
REMNANTS OF MISSOURI MCS TO REACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 18Z AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
REDEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...ONCE
AGAIN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRIMED WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT IFR DECK OR
WORSE TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR
FOG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
906 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     FLOOD            5 NW MARTINSVILLE       39.47N 86.49W
06/14/2010                   MORGAN             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MORGAN COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED HIGH WATER IN
            SEVERAL LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MARTINSVILLE...INCLUDING
            ALONG UPPER PATTON PARK ROAD.

0840 AM     FLOOD            5 S GREENCASTLE         39.57N 86.84W
06/14/2010                   PUTNAM             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUTNAM COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED HIGH WATER NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 550 SOUTH AND COUNTY ROAD
            75 WEST.

0840 AM     FLOOD            4 ENE CLOVERDALE        39.54N 86.73W
06/14/2010                   PUTNAM             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUTNAM COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED HIGH WATER ON
            INTERSTATE 70 AT MILE MARK 44.

&&

AHOMANN